The Big Ten continues to look like the top conference in the country, but with so many good teams, they’re starting to devour each other which leads to some bad looking records, but still great resumes towards the top of my rankings. Michigan has avoided a loss so far and is continuing to look better, especially with the increasing contribution from Hunter Dickinson.
Gonzaga and Baylor continue to look like they’re in a category of their own at the top, but the Bears have a few tough matchups coming up with three straight games against West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Kansas. With Gonzaga not playing Big 12 level competition the rest of the way, if Baylor can stay undefeated, they may rack up enough quality wins to dethrone the Zags at the top of my rankings.
The SEC is also quietly establishing a few teams at the top of their conference that could be dangerous in the postseason if they can keep it up. Missouri is still riding off their quality non-conference wins and could be slipping up in conference play, but Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, and even Arkansas keep looking better and better.
With normal powers like Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia having slow starts to the year, and now some COVID issues with scheduling in the ACC, the league that is used to being one of the best in the country currently only has two teams in my top-25. Clemson is a quietly good team with more wins I qualify as good than anyone else in the country.
I have a new system for tracking teams and will use it to base a lot of my decisions. As the year goes on, I find that a lot of people get sucked into the most recent games and put a little too much weight on recent results sometimes. Because of this, and because I generally like objective data as much as possible, I’m going to use these metrics in my post as well as the basis for my thought process.
I use KenPom as my starting point and keep track of the top-50 overall teams and a few others as I see fit. A key win in my rankings is defined as a top-50 win at home, a top-75 win on a neutral court, or a top-100 win on the road. I will try to record all losses for now, but will also denote bad losses in italics when necessary and those are just the opposite of the good wins. For instance, if a team loses to a team not in the top-50 at home, then it’s a “bad” loss. Same for a loss to a team outside of the top-100 anywhere.
1. Gonzaga (12-0)
Key Wins:
- Kansas on a neutral court by 12
- Auburn on a neutral court by 23
- West Virginia on a neutral court by 5
- Iowa on a neutral court by 11
- Virginia on a neutral court by 23
Losses:
- None
2. Baylor (11-0)
Key Wins:
- Illinois on a neutral court by 13
- Iowa State on the road by 11
- Oklahoma at home by 15
- TCU on the road by 18
Losses:
- None
3. Villanova (8-1)
Key Wins:
- Arizona State on a neutral court by 9
- Texas on the road by 4
- Marquette on the road by 17
Losses:
- Virginia Tech on a neutral court by 8 in OT
4. Texas (10-1)
Key Wins:
- Davidson on a neutral court by 2
- Indiana on a neutral court by 22
- North Carolina on a neutral court by 2
- Oklahoma State at home by 3
- Kansas on the road by 25
- West Virginia on the road by 2
Losses:
- Villanova at home by 4
5. Iowa (11-2)
Key Wins:
- North Carolina at home by 13
- Purdue at home by 15
- Rutgers on the road by 2
- Maryland on the road by 22
- Minnesota at home by 15
Losses:
- Gonzaga on a neutral court by 11
- Minnesota on the road by 7 in OT
6. Houston (10-1)
Key Wins:
- Texas Tech on a neutral court by 11
- UCF on the road by 9
- SMU on the road by 14
Losses:
- Tulsa on the road by 1
7. Michigan (10-0)
Key Wins:
- Penn State at home by 4
- Maryland on the road by 11
- Minnesota at home by 25
Losses:
- None
8. Wisconsin (10-2)
Key Wins:
- Loyola Chicago at home by 14
- Michigan State on the road by 9
- Minnesota at home by 12
- Indiana at home by 7 in 2OT
Losses:
- Marquette on the road by 2
- Maryland at home by 6
9. Tennessee (9-1)
Key Wins:
- Colorado at home by 9
- Missouri on the road by 20
- Arkansas at home by 5
Losses:
- Alabama at home by 8
10. Kansas (10-2)
Key Wins:
- Kentucky on a neutral court by 3
- Creighton at home by 1
- Texas Tech on the road by 1
- West Virginia at home by 14
- TCU on the road by 29
- Oklahoma at home by 4
Losses:
- Gonzaga on a neutral court by 12
- Texas at home by 25
11. Clemson (9-1)
Key Wins:
- Mississippi State on a neutral court by 11
- Purdue on a neutral court by 11
- Maryland at home by 16
- Alabama on a neutral court by 8
- Florida State at home by 10
- Miami on the road by 1
- NC State at home by 4 in OT
Losses:
- Virginia Tech on the road by 6
12. Creighton (10-2)
Key Wins:
- St. Johns on the road by 18
- Connecticut on the road by 2 in OT
- Providence on the road by 2
- Seton Hall at home by 36
Losses:
- Kansas on the road by 1
- Marquette at home by 5
13. Illinois (9-4)
Key Wins:
- Duke on the road by 15
- Minnesota at home by 27
- Penn State on the road by 17
- Indiana at home by 9
- Purdue at home by 11
Losses:
- Baylor on a neutral court by 13
- Missouri on the road by 3
- Rutgers on the road by 3
- Maryland at home by 3
14. Ohio State (9-3)
Key Wins:
- Notre Dame on the road by 5
- UCLA at home by 7
- Rutgers at home by 12
- Rutgers on the road by 11
Losses:
- Purdue on the road by 7
- Northwestern on the road by 1
- Minnesota on the road by 17
15. Texas Tech (10-3)
Key Wins:
- Oklahoma on the road by 2
- Iowa State on the road by 27
Losses:
- Houston on a neutral court by 11
- Kansas at home by 1
- Oklahoma State at home by 5 in OT
16. West Virginia (9-4)
Key Wins:
- VCU on a neutral court by 12
- Richmond at home by 16
- Oklahoma State on the road by 3
Losses:
- Gonzaga on a neutral court by 5
- Kansas on the road by 14
- Oklahoma on the road by 4
- Texas at home by 2
17. Connecticut (6-1)
Key Wins:
- USC on a neutral court by 3
- Marquette on the road by 11
- Butler on the road by 12
Losses:
- Creighton at home by 2 in OT
18. Louisville (8-1)
Key Wins:
- Seton Hall at home by 1
- Pittsburgh on the road by 10
- Kentucky at home by 3
- Virginia Tech on the road by 2
Losses:
- Wisconsin on the road by 27
19. USC (8-2)
Key Wins:
- BYU on a neutral court by 26
- Arizona on the road by 14
- Arizona State on the road by 9
Losses:
- Connecticut on a neutral court by 3
- Colorado at home by 10
20. UCLA (9-2)
Key Wins:
- Colorado at home by 3
- Arizona State on the road by 6 in OT
- Arizona on the road by 5
Losses:
- San Diego State on the road by 15
- Ohio State on the road by 7
21. Missouri (7-2)
Key Wins:
- Oregon on a neutral court by 8
- Wichita State on the road by 10
- Illinois at home by 3
- Arkansas on the road by 13
Losses:
- Tennessee at home by 20
- Mississippi State on the road by 15
22. Oregon (9-2)
Key Wins:
- Seton Hall on a neutral court by 13
- Stanford at home by 17
- Utah on the road by 6
Losses:
- Missouri on a neutral court by 8
- Colorado on the road by 7
23. Alabama (9-3)
Key Wins:
- Providence on a neutral court by 17
- Tennessee on the road by 8
- Florida at home by 15
- Auburn on the road by 4
Losses:
- Stanford on a neutral court by 18
- Clemson on a neutral court by 8
- Western Kentucky at home by 2
24. Saint Louis (7-1)
Key Wins:
- LSU at home by 4
- NC State at home by 11
Losses:
- Minnesota on the road by 8
25. LSU (8-2)
Key Wins:
- Ole Miss on the road by 14
Losses:
- Saint Louis on the road by 4
- Florida on the road by 4
Also Under Consideration (Alphabetical)
Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Drake, Duke, Florida, Florida State, Indiana, Kentucky, Loyola Chicago, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, NC State, North Carolina, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, San Diego State, Seton Hall, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech