Jekyll2021-04-11T11:16:27-05:00https://hoops.jacobvarner.com/feed.xmlJV’s Basketball BlogJacob Varner's take on the SEC and college basketball including advanced stats analysis, SEC power rankings, a college basketball top 25, and SEC previews, game picks, and season predictions.{"twitter"=>"jacobvarner"}2021 SEC Basketball Postseason Awards: Alabama Leads All Teams with Three All-SEC Players While Cameron Thomas Wins Player of the Year2021-03-08T00:00:00-06:002021-03-08T00:00:00-06:00https://hoops.jacobvarner.com/2021/03/08/2021-SEC-postseason-awards-alabama-leads-all-teams-with-three-all-sec-players-while-cameron-thomas-is-my-player-of-the-year<p>With the completion of another eventful SEC regular season, it’s time for people to release their postseason awards for players, teams, and coaches. I enjoy putting my thoughts out there and providing a slightly different way of looking at things.</p>
<p>In almost anything I do regarding basketball, I will never claim to be an expert on X’s and O’s and instead prefer to dive into stats and data. Now you need a combination of both to have a really good analysis, but I’ve always felt that people lean too much on the first one and trust the “eye test” a little bit too much. I’ve also sensed that people use a few good early games they watch the dictate a little too much of their decision and make up their mind on things, postseason awards, in this case, just a few weeks into the season.</p>
<p>Stats do not tell the entire story, but I think with the right stats you can get a better starting point than just going off of the games that you watch and what you think that your eyes are telling you. I try to watch just about every SEC basketball game each year, and this year I think I was able to fully focus on watching at least half with even more on in the background while I did other things. But even with all of that consumption, I still can’t take in every game, therefore my “eye test” is already not as valuable.</p>
<p>That’s where I prefer to use stats. I will never be able to watch every game, but I can easily track stats for every game and keep up with them as the season progresses. This allows me to keep an eye on interesting teams and players throughout the year that might not be getting a ton of recognition because TV or commentators don’t want to show or talk much about them, for whatever reasons.</p>
<p>There are some downsides to a stats first approach, but that’s why I still try to watch as much basketball as I can and try to accurately appreciate players (and sometimes teams) that just do the things that are hard to see in any stats well. With the various advanced metrics I’ve added over time, I think there is less and less that doesn’t show up on the stat sheet, but there are still plenty of other things that need to be seen in context when evaluating players for awards like this, in my opinion.</p>
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<p>Just like with <a href="/2020/10/07/2020-2021-sec-basketball-preseason-all-conference-teams-and-awards.html">my preseason awards</a>, I have selected just five players per team and tried to make each team resemble a real group of players that could be on the court at the same time, so generally there are at least two forwards and two guards on each team. The SEC is almost always a guard-heavy league, so that leads to more guards getting left off the All-SEC teams and that’s probably the case with mine.</p>
<p>Also, with the weird season, I did decide to set a minimum of 12 games played to be considered for the All-SEC teams, except for the freshman team. This means that players like Sharife Cooper, Dylan Disu, and Emanuel Miller did not make any of my All-SEC teams, despite each of those guys being in my top-10 players for most of the season.</p>
<p>I did not just use my Player Nice Rating to determine the All-SEC teams, but it was my strong starting point because I believe that the formula I use already does a good job of factoring in a variety of advanced all-around stats that determine good players and then each result is normalized against other players in the league. For reference, this was my final top 25 players at the end of the regular season:</p>
<p><img src="/images/2021-3-8/final-regular-season-player-nice-rating-top-25.png" alt="Top 25 SEC Basketball Players by Jacob Varner's Player Nice Rating" /></p>
<p>With all of those caveats, here are my 2021 SEC postseason awards:</p>
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<h3 id="all-sec-teams">All-SEC Teams</h3>
<p>Aside from a few spots where my position limitations affected which team a player is on, each of my teams is listed in order of how I would rank those guys. For instance, I have Cameron Thomas, then Moses Moody, then Scotty Pippen Jr., then Herbert Jones, then Jeremiah Tilmon as the five best players in the SEC this season.</p>
<h4 id="all-sec-first-team">All-SEC First Team</h4>
<p>Cameron Thomas - Freshman, Guard, LSU</p>
<p>Moses Moody - Freshman, Guard, Arkansas</p>
<p>Scotty Pippen Jr. - Sophomore, Guard, Vanderbilt</p>
<p>Herbert Jones - Senior, Guard/Forward, Alabama</p>
<p>Jeremiah Tilmon - Senior, Forward, Missouri</p>
<h4 id="all-sec-second-team">All-SEC Second Team</h4>
<p>Tre Mann - Sophomore, Guard, Florida</p>
<p>Jaden Shackelford - Sophomore, Guard, Alabama</p>
<p>John Petty Jr. - Senior, Guard, Alabama</p>
<p>Colin Castleton - Junior, Forward, Florida</p>
<p>Justin Smith - Senior, Forward, Arkansas</p>
<h4 id="all-sec-third-team">All-SEC Third Team</h4>
<p>Dru Smith - Senior, Guard, Missouri</p>
<p>Devontae Shuler - Senior, Guard, Ole Miss</p>
<p>Jaden Springer - Freshman, Guard, Tennessee</p>
<p>Trendon Watford - Sophomore, Forward, LSU</p>
<p>Keyshawn Bryant - Junior, Forward, South Carolina</p>
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<h4 id="all-sec-freshmen-team">All-SEC Freshmen Team</h4>
<p>Cameron Thomas - Guard, LSU</p>
<p>Moses Moody - Guard, Arkansas</p>
<p>Sharife Cooper - Guard, Auburn</p>
<p>Jaden Springer - Guard, Tennessee</p>
<p>Isaiah Jackson - Forward, Kentucky</p>
<h4 id="all-sec-defensive-team">All-SEC Defensive Team</h4>
<p>Herbert Jones - Senior, Guard/Forward, Alabama</p>
<p>Isaiah Jackson - Freshman, Forward, Kentucky</p>
<p>Abdul Ado - Senior, Forward, Mississippi State</p>
<p>Dru Smith - Senior, Guard, Missouri</p>
<p>Yves Pons - Senior, Forward, Tennessee</p>
<hr />
<p>Sharife Cooper did not meet my minimum requirements for making the All-SEC teams, but he held the top spot in my player rankings almost the entire time he played, and not many people came close to him at times. If he had played all year, he might have been on the All-SEC first team and could have been the best freshman, but I have him on just the All-SEC Freshmen Team to at least recognize him for his fantastic play this year when he was healthy.</p>
<p>Other players that I highly considered for the final spots on the All-SEC Third Team, that were eligible under my minimum game requirements, were DJ Stewart Jr., AJ Lawson, and Darius Days.</p>
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<h3 id="individual-awards">Individual Awards</h3>
<h4 id="sec-player-of-the-year">SEC Player of the Year</h4>
<p>Cameron Thomas - Freshman, Guard, LSU</p>
<h4 id="sec-freshman-of-the-year">SEC Freshman of the Year</h4>
<p>Cameron Thomas - Guard, LSU</p>
<h4 id="sec-defensive-player-of-the-year">SEC Defensive Player of the Year</h4>
<p>Herbert Jones - Senior, Guard/Forward, Alabama</p>
<h4 id="sec-coach-of-the-year">SEC Coach of the Year</h4>
<p>Nate Oats - Alabama</p>
<h4 id="sec-sixth-man-of-the-year">SEC Sixth Man of the Year</h4>
<p>Jahvon Quinerly - Sophomore, Guard, Alabama</p>
<hr />
<p>For SEC Coach of the Year and SEC Sixth Man of the Year, it came down to Alabama versus Arkansas, just like at the top of the standings, and ultimately I sided with Alabama’s representatives in both.</p>
<p>While I think Nate Oats inherited a more talented roster, the ability to completely get them to buy in on defense and become a truly dominant defense on top of his beautiful offense gave him the edge. He and Eric Musselman both surpassed the high expectations I had for their teams, and Musselman arguably did more with more newcomers and fewer certainties coming into the year, but ultimately, Alabama leading the league all year, and then ultimately winning the SEC regular season title made me go with Oats.</p>
<p>JD Notae was a close second for SEC Sixth Man of the Year, but I ultimately went with Quinerly because he narrowly beat out Notae in a handful of stats I favor, including Adjusted Game Score (+10.6 to +10.3), Net Points (+3.5 to +3.4), Versatility Index (4.32 to 3.88) while having better efficiency ratings, shooting percentages, and ultimately being a better scorer and facilitator.</p>
<p>Mike White also deserves an honorable mention in the SEC Coach of the Year category for what he and his team were able to accomplish after Keyontae Johnson went down. I’ve been hard on Mike White as a coach, and there were still some concerning moments this year, but overall, I don’t think anyone would have expected Florida to be sitting where they are now after Johnson went down and the other setbacks they had throughout the year.</p>Jacob VarnerWith the completion of another eventful SEC regular season, it’s time for people to release their postseason awards for players, teams, and coaches. I enjoy putting my thoughts out there and providing a slightly different way of looking at things.SEC Basketball Power Rankings: Arkansas and Alabama Should Be Clear Favorites in the SEC Tournament2021-03-07T00:00:00-06:002021-03-07T00:00:00-06:00https://hoops.jacobvarner.com/2021/03/07/sec-basketball-power-rankings-arkansas-and-alabama-should-be-clear-favorites-in-the-sec-tournament<p>The SEC regular season is in the books. At the end of the crazy season, the league managed to finish 116 different games with just 10 total games missing from the original schedule.</p>
<p>For the most part, Alabama has been the top team all season long, and Arkansas’s recent streak of success, including 11-straight wins in SEC play had them take over the top spot in my rankings over the final weeks, while Alabama still held onto the second spot.</p>
<p>Alabama and Arkansas seem to be the only sure teams going into the SEC Tournament, but teams like LSU, Missouri, and Florida could all also be dangerous if their best versions show up to play.</p>
<p>With all that said, enjoy my updated SEC basketball power rankings. As always, if you’d like to discuss them or have a disagreement, the best place to reach out is <a href="https://www.twitter.com/jacobvarner">on Twitter</a>. Thanks for reading.</p>
<p><em>My method for power rankings is whom I think will win a game between two teams on a neutral court if the game was played at the time of the rankings. For instance, I would pick the number one team to beat every team ranked below it on a neutral court and the fourth-ranked team would be favored over everyone other than the top three teams. I consider the entire season as a basis for how good I think the team is, but if a team is missing key players or is in a slump, that can weigh more in my current power rankings, even if a team is better overall for the season.</em></p>
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<h4 id="14-texas-am-aggies">14. Texas A&M Aggies</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 14</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Lost vs Mississippi State 57-63, Lost at Arkansas 80-87</p>
<p>Texas A&M didn’t look near as rusty as I expected, and even gave Arkansas some problems for most of the game, but the Aggies still don’t look like a great team, especially against Mississippi State at home. I was impressed that they were able to put up 80 points against a good Arkansas defense, on the road nonetheless, but I still wouldn’t count on them outscoring teams in Nashville this week.</p>
<h4 id="13-south-carolina-gamecocks">13. South Carolina Gamecocks</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 13</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Lost at Kentucky 64-92</p>
<p>South Carolina’s big win over Georgia was certainly an outlier as the Gamecocks ended their regular season with a massive loss on the road against Kentucky. It’s saying something about your defense when you allow Kentucky to shoot over 50% from deep and score 90+ points while emptying their bench towards the end.</p>
<h4 id="12-vanderbilt-commodores">12. Vanderbilt Commodores</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 12</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Lost at LSU 68-83, Lost at Ole Miss 46-56</p>
<p>Scotty Pippen Jr. had a massive game in his return in the non-conference game against Cincinnati, but he couldn’t get much going in his SEC regular season finale against Ole Miss and he and Dylan Disu were obviously missed against LSU. If Pippen Jr. and Disu had both finished the season healthy, Vanderbilt could have been a potentially dangerous team in their hometown at the SEC Tournament, but as of now, I don’t see them getting past the second round.</p>
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<h4 id="11-georgia-bulldogs">11. Georgia Bulldogs</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 9</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Lost vs Alabama 79-89</p>
<p>With a little bit of extra time to prepare for Alabama, it looked like Georgia might be able to pull off a major upset in the last game of the regular season as they came out and went up big on the Crimson Tide early. Instead, like in other sports, the Bulldogs just couldn’t close the deal in the second half and what started as a game where they were doubling-up Alabama ended in a double-digit loss.</p>
<p>I still think Georgia can be a sneaky team in Nashville, but with back-to-back losses entering the postseason, including an ugly loss to South Carolina, I’m not very confident in Georgia winning any games this week.</p>
<h4 id="10-mississippi-state-bulldogs">10. Mississippi State Bulldogs</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 7</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Won vs Texas A&M 63-57, Lost at Auburn 71-78</p>
<p>I might have had Mississippi State a little bit overrated last week, but they just slid up with teams like Tennessee, Auburn, and even Kentucky continuing to look questionable. All of those teams played better this week, including Auburn’s win over Mississippi State, so the Bulldogs slide back down to the bottom four. If Mississippi State can get the good defense in Nashville, and their main three of DJ Stewart Jr., Iverson Moliner, and Tolu Smith can all play well, they have the talent to make some noise, but it’s going to take almost everything going right at the same time.</p>
<h4 id="9-tennessee-volunteers">9. Tennessee Volunteers</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 11</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Won vs Florida 65-54</p>
<p>It took a big second half, a good game from John Fulkerson, and Florida playing without Tre Mann, but Tennessee was still able to get one more win in the regular season and hang onto the 4-seed in the SEC Tournament next week. Tennessee still has a very high ceiling given their abundance of talent and experience, but they will only go as far as their offense can take them. You could tell me Tennessee finishes the year with two straight losses to open the SEC Tournament and NCAA Tournament, or they could win the SEC Tournament and make it deep into the NCAA Tournament and neither would really surprise me.</p>
<p>I’m not confident enough in the Volunteers to move them too far up these rankings again, but they still have one of the highest ceilings in the SEC thanks to the good combination of experience and young talent, along with an excellent defense.</p>
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<h4 id="8-auburn-tigers">8. Auburn Tigers</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 10</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Lost at Alabama 58-70, Won vs Mississippi State 78-71</p>
<p>Despite the defense showing up in Tuscaloosa, Auburn’s offense still met a dominant Alabama defense on the road and fell for a second time this season to their biggest rival, this time without Sharife Cooper. Cooper wasn’t able to play for the final game against Mississippi State either, so he ended up missing the first few and last few games for the Tigers to open and close SEC play.</p>
<p>Auburn won’t be playing in the postseason this year, so the long offseason begins. There are a few questions going into next year, but regardless of the answers, this team will likely be a more experienced, and even more talented team next season who will at least have one last win to look back on for the 2020-2021 season that had even more unfortunate breaks than expected.</p>
<h4 id="7-kentucky-wildcats">7. Kentucky Wildcats</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 5</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Lost vs Ole Miss 62-70, Won vs South Carolina 92-64</p>
<p>Sure, Kentucky looked really good again to end the season against a bad South Carolina team, but other than Texas A&M and Georgia, just about every other team in the league has done the same. If Kentucky is able to shoot that well from deep in Nashville, they may once again turn the city into their home away from home, but I’m not counting on it.</p>
<h4 id="6-ole-miss-rebels">6. Ole Miss Rebels</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 8</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Won vs Kentucky 70-62, Won vs Vanderbilt 56-46</p>
<p>The defense once again carried the Ole Miss team to two more wins to end their season, but they got a good bit of offense against Kentucky as well. Ole Miss is still a well-coached team that could pose some problems for others, especially early on, at the SEC Tournament this week. If at least two of Ole Miss’s key players put up some points, they’re going to always be a difficult team to score against, and that could give them an advantage when every game is on a neutral court.</p>
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<h4 id="5-florida-gators">5. Florida Gators</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 3</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Lost vs Missouri 70-72, Lost at Tennessee 54-65</p>
<p>Coming into this week, Florida looked like a team that was playing well enough to challenge Arkansas and Alabama at the top of the league. Instead, they dropped two close games against Missouri and Tennessee which gives them a winless start to March. Florida played the Tennessee game without one of their best players and a key piece in the backcourt, Tre Mann. Tyree Appleby stepped up well in his place, but there were many moments when the Gators just looked lost without him in the second half. Since Mann was out with just a migraine, he should be back for the SEC Tournament and Florida can hope that is just the piece they were missing and can get back to their high level of play over the previous weeks.</p>
<h4 id="4-missouri-tigers">4. Missouri Tigers</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 6</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Won at Florida 72-70, Lost vs LSU 80-86</p>
<p>Missouri has the experience and skill where they will likely be in just about every game. They also have enough talent to win quite a few of those games, as they did against Florida on the road this week. While they still have one of the best resumes in college basketball, Missouri also struggles with putting teams away, and in a lot of cases, they let the other team finish strong and give up the win as they did against LSU. LSU is a good team, and even harder to beat when Cameron Thomas is scoring even more than usual. I think Missouri can be a dangerous team in Nashville and the NCAA Tournament, even if they have a lower seed than they might have been able to obtain if they didn’t drop so many close games as well.</p>
<h4 id="3-lsu-tigers">3. LSU Tigers</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 4</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Won vs Vanderbilt 83-68, Won at Missouri 86-80</p>
<p>LSU finishes the regular season as just about the only team that was exactly like I expected. The Tigers finished with the same record I projected them to have and were carried by their excellent offense. I expected Trendon Watford to have the biggest role, but instead, the contribution was split more with guys like Cameron Thomas and Darius Days. As long as LSU can play remotely decent defense over the next month, they can be a dangerous team with their ability to outscore just about anyone in an average game.</p>
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<h4 id="2-alabama-crimson-tide">2. Alabama Crimson Tide</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 2</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Won vs Auburn 70-58, Won at Georgia 89-79</p>
<p>After clinching the SEC regular season title last weekend, Alabama avoided any kind of letting up in the final two games. It was no surprise that the Crimson Tide had motivation against rival Auburn and that ended with a season sweep and the first 2-0 season against the Tigers since 2015. It looked like Alabama might have overlooked Georgia early on in that game, but the Crimson Tide eventually made a pretty quick comeback in the second half and ended up getting out of there with yet another double-digit win over the Bulldogs this season.</p>
<p>Alabama’s offense is still not where it was earlier in the season, but their defense is elite and that will be what carries them as far as they can go over the next month.</p>
<h4 id="1-arkansas-razorbacks">1. Arkansas Razorbacks</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 1</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Won at South Carolina 101-73, Won vs Texas A&M 87-80</p>
<p>Arkansas started the week with their first triple-digit performance in SEC play when they went on the road and dominated South Carolina as expected. The game against Texas A&M didn’t go quite as planned, but the Razorbacks still found a way to hang out, despite giving up 80 points to the struggling Aggie offense. I’m sure Arkansas can chalk up the less-than-ideal defensive performance on Saturday to just looking past the game and preparing for bigger things in March, but they can’t let that happen again going forward.</p>
<p>The Razorbacks might be the deepest team in the SEC and they’ll have any number of weapons that can step up in any given game and allow them to keep building on this 11-game SEC winning streak.</p>
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<p>Whether it’s playing for SEC Tournament seeding or even NCAA Tournament seeding, most of these games have something on the line, even if some of the matchups look to be a little onesided. The last weekend of the season can often be extra exciting, so I don’t expect these games to go as most people are expecting.</p>
<p>The randomness likely won’t be good for my last shot at a perfect week of predictions, but I was so close yet again on the midweek games. With just these seven games over the next two days being my last picks to count towards my season record, I’m 77-42 on the year and would at least like to get correct pick number 80, while the 2-1 correct picks to misses ratio is still on the table.</p>
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<h4 id="south-carolina-4-11-at-kentucky-7-9">South Carolina (4-11) at Kentucky (7-9)</h4>
<p>South Carolina’s big win over Georgia last weekend was definitely an outlier, as they went right back to the receiving end of the blowouts against Arkansas at home. The Gamecocks will now travel to Kentucky with nothing to play for other than trying to stay out of the very bottom of the standings.</p>
<p>Kentucky has already clinched a losing record in SEC play which has not happened since 1989, but a loss would cause the Wildcats to end with the fewest SEC regular season wins since they finished 6-0 in 1946.</p>
<p>An SEC Tournament run is the only way that Kentucky will make the big dance this season, but I’d like to think their guys have enough pride to at least end the regular season with a win as well. Just a week ago some people were starting to say Kentucky could be a dangerous team in Nashville, but they’ll need a really impressive performance against South Carolina to bring those takes back.</p>
<p>I still think Kentucky will win, especially with the game being in Rupp, but I wouldn’t be surprised if South Carolina makes this a closer game than it should be, given their recent blowouts.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Kentucky 75, South Carolina 69</strong></p>
<h4 id="mississippi-state-8-9-at-auburn-6-11">Mississippi State (8-9) at Auburn (6-11)</h4>
<p>Sharife Cooper still didn’t play against Alabama despite mind games from Bruce Pearl leaving the possibility of him being close to available leading up to the game and his absence showed once again. If he was truly “not close” to playing against Alabama, I’d think he’s also less likely to be available for Mississippi State.</p>
<p>It’s a shame that the shortened season of Cooper was shortened even more with this ankle injury, but I don’t think he should play in this game unless he’s 100% healthy, which seems unlikely. He shouldn’t do anything else to potentially risk or hurt his draft stock if he is planning to take that route, and another game without him, especially against a slightly lesser team like Mississippi State, can be good for Auburn’s other young players, whether Cooper decides to come back next year or not.</p>
<p>With the drop off of Tennessee and the fortune of playing a game against Texas A&M, Mississippi State’s defense is now up to the second most efficient defense in SEC play. The Bulldogs are giving up just 0.969 points per possession on defense, but still, have a negative net rating due to their offense only scoring 0.963 points per possession which is 13th in the league.</p>
<p>With Auburn playing at home, I think they’ll have another improved offensive performance and the defense looked better than in recent weeks against Alabama. Almost nothing has gone right for Auburn this season in a year that was already expected to be a step back from their recent success. A win on Saturday won’t make all of that better, but it will at least make the long offseason feel better for Auburn fans as they await what will be an even more talented, and slightly more experienced team next season.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Auburn 78, Mississippi State 65</strong></p>
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<h4 id="alabama-15-2-at-georgia-7-10">Alabama (15-2) at Georgia (7-10)</h4>
<p>With the SEC regular season championship secured already and the season sweep of Auburn under their belt, I originally thought this might be a game where Alabama would let off a little bit and set up an opportunity for Georgia to “shock” them on the road and get a win.</p>
<p>On second thought, I really don’t think this Alabama team is the type to take it easy at this point and they still have the chance to play for a 1-seed in March Madness, so every win will be important going forward.</p>
<p>Georgia’s success has been tied pretty closely to the success of Sahvir Wheeler this season, and that was very evident over the last two games. Against LSU, Wheeler had a triple-double while Georgia got the big upset over the Tigers. Then, against South Carolina, Wheeler has just 7 points and 7 turnovers as the Gamecocks flipped the script and came out with a big win.</p>
<p>Alabama forced a ton of turnovers against Auburn on Tuesday, and they could potentially do the same against Georgia, depending on how aggressive they opt to play defense. On the offensive side, this could also be a good opportunity for Alabama to shake off some of the lesser offensive performances they’ve had lately since Georgia’s quick style of play and second-least efficient defense in the SEC should put up little resistance against Alabama, especially inside, which will open up their kick-out offense even more.</p>
<p>Maybe Alabama will overlook this one or play at less than full effort with bigger goals ahead, but I think they still have enough importance in this game that they’ll show up and get the easy win against a team that they should be way better than.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Alabama 95, Georgia 75</strong></p>
<h4 id="lsu-10-6-at-missouri-8-7">LSU (10-6) at Missouri (8-7)</h4>
<p>LSU has already clinched a double-bye in the SEC Tournament next week, and with both Alabama and Arkansas looking really good, I’m not sure there is a huge difference between the third or fourth seed for the Tigers.</p>
<p>On the other side, Missouri cannot reach one of the top-4 seeds for the SEC Tournament but a win over LSU would be yet another impressive addition to their resume. Coming off the road win over Florida, Missouri could carry their momentum into Nashville with another win over a top SEC team.</p>
<p>For Missouri, Dru Smith has been making a recent run at one of my All-SEC teams, and this matchup against Javonte Smart and Cameron Thomas could also be key in him making a case for Defensive Player of the Year. I still think that Jeremiah Tilmon is the best player on Missouri’s team, but Dru Smith stepping up alongside him provides a nice boost for the Tigers, especially with Xavier Pinson not being super consistent this year.</p>
<p>With this game being in Columbia, I think Missouri will be able to dictate the pace a little more and their defense will give LSU enough problems where the home Tigers can come out with a final win in the regular season.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Missouri 77, LSU 76</strong></p>
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<h4 id="texas-am-2-7-at-arkansas-12-4">Texas A&M (2-7) at Arkansas (12-4)</h4>
<p>With over a month off from basketball, I had forgotten just how bad Texas A&M’s offense was but was quickly reminded when they finally returned against Mississippi State on Wednesday. The Aggies have a few guys that can score, mostly led by Emanuel Miller, but overall, the offense is just hard to watch and struggles to score at anything above a snail’s pace.</p>
<p>Despite the offense being bad, the Aggies didn’t look as rusty as I would have expected. That may have been due to them playing at home, or them facing another slow team like Mississippi State. If either of those played a factor, they certainly won’t against Arkansas as the Razorbacks get to host this matchup after both the originally scheduled home and away games were postponed earlier during Texas A&M’s long pause.</p>
<p>Arkansas didn’t have enough time to catch Alabama for the SEC regular season title, but they’re still on a season-best in the league ten-game winning streak. On top of that Arkansas has played themselves up to a high seed in the NCAA Tournament bracket and could potentially get as high as a 2-seed, which would give them an even better chance of making a Sweet 16 for the first time since 1996.</p>
<p>I’ve loved the Razorbacks over the last month, and I’m certainly not going to pick against them with Texas A&M of all teams. The Aggies will likely succeed at slowing the game down enough that Arkansas isn’t able to score triple-digits for the second consecutive game, but the Razorbacks will still win by double-digits.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Arkansas 80, Texas A&M 52</strong></p>
<h4 id="vanderbilt-3-12-at-ole-miss-9-8">Vanderbilt (3-12) at Ole Miss (9-8)</h4>
<p>Scotty Pippen Jr. was incredible in his return against Cincinnati, but now Vanderbilt will have to go on the road again with a short turnaround time and face a better Ole Miss team that will be looking for revenge after the Commodores got the best of them a week ago and all but eliminated them from at-large NCAA Tournament contention.</p>
<p>Vanderbilt is still without Dylan Disu, so they’ll be shorthanded and undersized against Ole Miss, especially against Romello White. Jordan Wright has been playing well since Disu went down, but aside from Scotty Pippen Jr. playing even better than he did against Cincinnati, I don’t think Vanderbilt will have enough firepower to score against the tough Ole Miss defense.</p>
<p>With the first loss to Vanderbilt a week ago, Ole Miss will now need to win the SEC Tournament if they plan to go dancing this year, but that should make them even more eager to get their revenge. A home game with a healthier roster than the Commodores should give Kermit Davis’s squad enough to get past Vanderbilt this time.</p>
<p>Devontae Shuler could use another big game to lock up a spot on one of my All-SEC teams, but he’ll need to outshine Scotty Pippen Jr. in this one. I think the game will be won for Ole Miss on the defensive side of the ball and down low, but they’re never their best without Shuler playing well. Shuler had the game-high 25 points in the first matchup, but the Rebels still lost. Now he’ll need to have another good night, and hopefully keep Pippen Jr. at bay, if they are going to get revenge and end the regular season on a high note.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Ole Miss 72, Vanderbilt 70</strong></p>
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<h4 id="florida-9-6-at-tennessee-9-7">Florida (9-6) at Tennessee (9-7)</h4>
<p>The game with the most on the line had to be saved for Sunday, and it could be a great game to wrap up the regular season. The winner of this game will get the last double-bye in the SEC Tournament, but Tennessee could fall as low as the 7-seed with a loss.</p>
<p>Tennessee looked awful against Auburn in their last game, but they’ve had over a week to prepare for this final game of the regular season, so hopefully, the experienced roster and the talented freshmen were able to get on the same page and put together one more quality offensive performance to end the regular season.</p>
<p>Florida was potentially heating up with three-straight wins before their close home loss to Missouri, but a win on the road at Tennessee would reassure my hopes for the Gators doing something in March. Tennessee on the other hand is going to be a trendy first-round exit pick if they lose this game to finish the year at just 9-8 after being most people’s pick as the preseason SEC champion.</p>
<p>The Volunteers have alternated wins and losses for each of the last six games, and I think they’ll keep up that trend, barely, against Florida. I’ll chalk their loss to Auburn up as just the game they seem to always lose in recent years and if both freshmen and at least one or two of John Fulkerson, Yves Pons, or Victor Bailey show up, they should have enough offense to get by the Gators at home.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Tennessee 69, Florida 64</strong></p>
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</script></p>Jacob VarnerIt all comes down to this, or almost all of it. While Alabama clinched the SEC regular season title a week ago and Arkansas has already locked up the 2-seed in the SEC Tournament, no other seed has been set and there are still two teams that can jump into the group of double-byes, joining Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU.SEC Basketball Power Rankings: There’s a New Team at the Top with Just One Week to Go2021-02-28T00:00:00-06:002021-02-28T00:00:00-06:00https://hoops.jacobvarner.com/2021/02/28/sec-basketball-power-rankings-theres-a-new-team-at-the-top-with-one-week-to-go<p>With just one week left in the regular season, there is finally a new top team in my power rankings. Of all the teams that got to play two games this week, everyone except for Arkansas and Florida went 1-1, which made placing teams even more difficult this week. Some of the teams that split their games did so by also looking like a totally different team in each one.</p>
<p>This last week could determine which teams head into Nashville with the best chance to make some noise, but outside of Arkansas and Alabama, I’m not sure who is going to be a safe pick. This year more than ever, the bracket and matchups in the SEC Tournament will make a big difference. Teams like Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Georgia have all looked both good or bad this year, depending on who they’re playing or when they’re playing.</p>
<p>All I know is the five days in Nashville are going to be crazy and will certainly make up for the missed tournament last season.</p>
<p>With all that said, enjoy my updated SEC basketball power rankings. As always, if you’d like to discuss them or have a disagreement, the best place to reach out is <a href="https://www.twitter.com/jacobvarner">on Twitter</a>. Thanks for reading.</p>
<p><em>My method for power rankings is whom I think will win a game between two teams on a neutral court if the game was played at the time of the rankings. For instance, I would pick the number one team to beat every team ranked below it on a neutral court and the fourth-ranked team would be favored over everyone other than the top three teams. I consider the entire season as a basis for how good I think the team is, but if a team is missing key players or is in a slump, that can weigh more in my current power rankings, even if a team is better overall for the season.</em></p>
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<h4 id="14-texas-am-aggies">14. Texas A&M Aggies</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 14</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> No games played</p>
<p>Texas A&M is supposed to be back to playing this week and even rescheduled one of their games at Arkansas on Saturday. I’m not really sure what the point of them playing will be, but it’ll be interesting to see how they look after taking an entire month away from competition</p>
<h4 id="13-south-carolina-gamecocks">13. South Carolina Gamecocks</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 13</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Lost at Mississippi State 48-69, Won at Georgia 91-70</p>
<p>Not much summarizes South Carolina this season better than the Gamecocks going from scoring 48 points in a loss to putting up 91 in a win over Georgia, with both games coming on the road. If you were to take out South Carolina’s 21-point and 24-point wins over Georgia, the Gamecocks would be just 2-10 in SEC play and have an overall deficit of 101 points. And I still don’t know how they managed to take down Florida on the road as well.</p>
<p>South Carolina has games against Arkansas and Kentucky this week, but with 10 losses already, they’ll almost certainly be playing on Wednesday in the SEC Tournament, but whether they’re the 11th, 12th, or 13th seed is still yet to be determined.</p>
<h4 id="12-vanderbilt-commodores">12. Vanderbilt Commodores</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 12</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Lost vs Tennessee 58-70, Won vs Ole Miss 75-70</p>
<p>Just when Scotty Pippen Jr. and Dylan Disu were both starting to heat up, both had to miss both games for Vanderbilt this week. But somehow, the Commodores managed to keep the game close against Tennessee and then knocked off Ole Miss at home to almost certainly eliminate their chances of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, Disu is out for the year, but if Scotty Pippen Jr. is able to come back this week or by the start of the SEC Tournament, I could see the Dores winning the opening game for the first time since 2017.</p>
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<h4 id="11-tennessee-volunteers">11. Tennessee Volunteers</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 8</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Won at Vanderbilt 70-58, Lost at Auburn 72-77</p>
<p>Tennessee came limping into this week in my eyes, but I thought they would be set up to get going again with two struggling teams, Vanderbilt and Auburn on the schedule. To make things look even more fortunate for Tennessee, both of Vanderbilt’s star players missed the game and Auburn played without Sharife Cooper. Instead of getting two easy wins, the Volunteers split the week and have now split their last six games, alternating wins and losses, and have lost six of their last 11.</p>
<p>The freshmen played well against Auburn, but this team just can’t seem to get on the same page for more than a week. Tennessee will still get an at-large bid based on their earlier success, but I don’t feel confident picking them to win multiple, if any, games in both the SEC Tournament and NCAA Tournament.</p>
<h4 id="10-auburn-tigers">10. Auburn Tigers</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 10</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Lost vs Florida 57-74, Won vs Tennessee 77-72</p>
<p>Auburn looked exactly like one would expect against Florida while playing without Sharife Cooper again. Auburn was already starting to play poorly with Cooper, and having no direction on offense, in addition to their struggling defense, ended up being a disaster against the Gators, especially in the first half.</p>
<p>The Tigers didn’t totally give up against Florida, and actually used a good effort in the second half to build towards their game against Tennessee. Then on Saturday, all of Auburn’s starters stepped up for the Tigers to get their sixth-straight win over the Volunteers while Bruce Pearl continues to have the upper hand over his former employer and Rick Barnes.</p>
<p>With Auburn ineligible for the postseason, they’ll just hope to play spoiler this week at rival Alabama and maybe get one more win in the makeup game against Mississippi State to finalize their season and start looking towards next year.</p>
<h4 id="9-georgia-bulldogs">9. Georgia Bulldogs</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 9</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Won vs LSU 91-78, Lost vs South Carolina 70-91</p>
<p>Georgia shocked me again and had a massive win against LSU on Tuesday including a triple-double from Sahvir Wheeler. It looked like the Bulldogs’ point guard was making a final push to end this season ahead of schedule and Georgia might be able to be a dangerous team in the SEC Tournament. All Georgia had to do was win a home game against South Carolina and I likely would have moved the Bulldogs up quite a bit in these rankings, especially with how other games went on Saturday.</p>
<p>Instead, Georgia almost stood no chance against the Gamecocks, for the second time this season, and Sahvir Wheeler also posted a team-low -4.7 AGS in the game and had just 7 points and 7 turnovers. With just a home game against Alabama next Saturday, it looks like the Bulldogs won’t be going into the SEC Tournament on a high note.</p>
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<h4 id="8-ole-miss-rebels">8. Ole Miss Rebels</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 7</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Won at Missouri 60-53, Lost at Vanderbilt 70-75</p>
<p>Even after the loss to Mississippi State last week, Ole Miss might have cracked the door back open on their chances at an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament with an impressive win on the road against Missouri to complete the season sweep. However, if the door wasn’t completely closed after the loss to Mississippi State, the road loss to Vanderbilt, playing without their two best players, most likely dealt the final blow.</p>
<p>Ole Miss, like a lot of teams this week, really had the chance to have an impressive set of games by winning their first, tougher matchup, only to turn around and lose a game that they probably should have won. Maybe it’s the long season wearing on teams, but this week was particularly crazy and Ole Miss was just another example of that.</p>
<h4 id="7-mississippi-state-bulldogs">7. Mississippi State Bulldogs</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 11</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Won vs South Carolina 69-48, Lost vs Alabama 59-64</p>
<p>Mississippi State built on their win over rival Ole Miss with another large win over a supposedly struggling South Carolina team. The Bulldogs’ defense really played well against the Gamecocks and then even kept them in the game down to the end against Alabama who was trying to clinch the regular season SEC title. Ultimately, Mississippi State’s offense just couldn’t capitalize on any of the many opportunities late against Alabama and they had to watch the Crimson Tide celebrate the title in their gym.</p>
<h4 id="6-missouri-tigers">6. Missouri Tigers</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 6</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Lost vs Ole Miss 53-60</p>
<p>Missouri let Ole Miss get the best of their offense once again this season and no one on the Tigers scored more than 12 points, with Kobe Brown actually leading the way at that mark. With just one game this week, Missouri didn’t get a chance to bounce back (or potentially fall even further), so they sit just inside the top half of my power rankings. The Tigers are still too experienced a team for me to give up on them, and they’ve mostly shown they look decent in all their games, so I think they’ll still be a tough team for anyone to face in the SEC and NCAA Tournaments.</p>
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<h4 id="5-kentucky-wildcats">5. Kentucky Wildcats</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 6</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Lost vs Florida 67-71</p>
<p>With three-straight wins and a game off before their home game against Florida on Saturday, a lot of Kentucky fans and others were starting to say this was a team that could run the table in the SEC Tournament. They still might be capable of that, but I wasn’t hopping on that train before this game and still don’t plan on it now with the Wildcats dropping another game where they had a lead in the second half.</p>
<p>Sure, Florida had a good week, but if Kentucky can’t get past the Gators in Rupp Arena, I’m not buying into this offense winning four games in a row in two weeks, which they’ll have to do to have any chance of making the NCAA Tournament.</p>
<h4 id="4-lsu-tigers">4. LSU Tigers</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 3</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Lost at Georgia 78-91, Lost at Arkansas 75-83</p>
<p>LSU was the only team to go 0-2 this week, but the Tigers are still one of the most capable teams thanks to the best offense in the SEC. They caught Georgia on one of their hot nights, with Sahvir Wheeler having a historic performance, and then a bunch of fouls called early in the second half against Arkansas let the game get out of hand. Still, both losses came on the road and one was to my new top team, so LSU doesn’t fall very far this week.</p>
<p>With games against Vanderbilt and Missouri this week, LSU will need to win at least one of them, because there is still a chance the Tigers will not get one of the four double-byes in the SEC Tournament.</p>
<h4 id="3-florida-gators">3. Florida Gators</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 4</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Won at Auburn 74-57, Won at Kentucky 71-67</p>
<p>Florida was the only other team along with Arkansas to win both games this week and both wins also came on the road. The road win over an Auburn team without Sharife Cooper isn’t very impressive, but it was a good sign that Florida beat them as bad as they should have and put the game out of reach before halftime.</p>
<p>The win at Kentucky was more impressive because it snapped a three-game winning streak for the Wildcats and prepares the Gators for their games against Missouri and Tennessee to wrap up the regular season this week. Tre Mann and Colin Castleton are now both in the top 10 of my SEC player rankings, and they give the Gators a nice inside-outside combo that could be the dynamic they need to make some noise in Nashville and Indiana over the next month.</p>
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<h4 id="2-alabama-crimson-tide">2. Alabama Crimson Tide</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 1</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Lost at Arkansas 66-81, Won at Mississippi State 64-59</p>
<p>After seven straight weeks in the top spot of my power rankings, including with several different teams challenging them in the number two spot, Alabama has finally moved down one peg. Alabama again struggled on offense against Arkansas and the Razorbacks were able to make their way to the FT line a lot more than the Crimson Tide, which made what already looked to be a game Arkansas would have won an even bigger loss for Alabama.</p>
<p>The Crimson Tide were already starting to look like they were trending down from their peak, and they caught Arkansas as the hottest team in a surprisingly energetic Bud Walton Arena, despite the attendance restrictions. Alabama looked a little shaken in the second half of that one, and some of the ways players were handling the loss was concerning. However, it didn’t take long for Alabama to turn around and immediately have something better to celebrate when they clinched the SEC regular season title with a road win over Mississippi State.</p>
<p>Alabama’s offense can’t play that poorly against good teams like Arkansas and the others they will face in Nashville and Indiana next month if they want to win, but the Crimson Tide defense should be able to keep them in just about every game, and that’s why they fall to just this second-place spot.</p>
<h4 id="1-arkansas-razorbacks">1. Arkansas Razorbacks</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 2</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Won vs Alabama 81-66, Won vs LSU 83-75</p>
<p>Arkansas is seriously on an impressive run and it couldn’t come at a better time. The Razorbacks have now won nine-straight SEC games, and their last five wins have come against the next five teams in my power rankings, including teams ranked second, third, and fourth over the last three games.</p>
<p>Moses Moody is playing like an SEC freshman of the year or even player of the year candidate while Justin Smith continues to be a key piece now that he’s back in the lineup. Jalen Tate, Desi Sills, and JD Notae each offer another option that can step up in any given game, and then Jaylin Williams is becoming a good additional piece to play down low alongside Connor Vanover.</p>
<p>The Razorbacks no longer have a shot to win the SEC regular season title with Alabama’s win over Mississippi State, but the Razorbacks are sort of getting rewarded with just games against South Carolina and Texas A&M this week to wrap up the season. I believe Arkansas has already clinched a double-bye in the SEC Tournament, so the exact seed between two and four is the only thing left to be determined.</p>
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</script></p>Jacob VarnerWith just one week left in the regular season, there is finally a new top team in my power rankings. Of all the teams that got to play two games this week, everyone except for Arkansas and Florida went 1-1, which made placing teams even more difficult this week. Some of the teams that split their games did so by also looking like a totally different team in each one.SEC Basketball Picks and Predictions - 2021 Week 9B2021-02-26T00:00:00-06:002021-02-26T00:00:00-06:00https://hoops.jacobvarner.com/2021/02/26/sec-basketball-picks-and-predictions-2021-week-9b<p>The second to last weekend of SEC regular-season games is here, and everyone but Texas A&M is available once again. Alabama appears to be the only team to have clinched a double-bye in the SEC Tournament, so seven other teams still have a good bit to play for over the final few games, including some important matchups on Saturday.</p>
<p>After losing to Arkansas on Wednesday, Alabama is still just one win away from clinching the SEC regular-season title. It’ll be best for them to go ahead and clinch it sooner-rather-than-later with potentially tricky games against Auburn and at Georgia up next.</p>
<p>Ole Miss and Kentucky will also be battling to keep their slim chances at an NCAA Tournament birth alive with games against Vanderbilt and Florida respectively ahead of their matchup next week that could decide the final fate for either team, barring an SEC Tournament title.</p>
<p>With another 4-2 record on the midweek games, I reached the perfectly nice number of 69 but still want to reach my goal of finishing the season with twice as many correct picks as misses. A perfect 6-0 tomorrow could get me there, but since I stand at 69-37 overall now, another winning record on the day will keep me in range.</p>
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<h4 id="tennessee-9-6-at-auburn-5-10">Tennessee (9-6) at Auburn (5-10)</h4>
<p>Tennessee has looked increasingly worse lately, and most recently barely got by a Vanderbilt team that was playing without their two best players while Scotty Pippen Jr. and Dylan Disu were out with injuries. Now the Volunteers will have to travel to Auburn and face a team that they’ve lost five-straight games too.</p>
<p>However, Auburn is also likely playing without their best player as Sharife Cooper tries to heal from an ankle injury before the year. Auburn was already trending down even with Cooper playing, but without him in the lineup, the Tigers looked even worse against Florida, especially in the first half.</p>
<p>If somehow Sharife Cooper is able to play, I think Auburn can easily handle Tennessee, despite their issues lately. Auburn’s offense should be able to score on Tennessee and the Volunteers haven’t been able to keep up with people over their past few games. Even with Cooper likely not playing, I think Auburn will have had enough time to adjust after looking better in the second half against Florida, even if the game was out of reach the entire time, and keep their winning streak going against Bruce Pearl’s former team.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Auburn 75, Tennessee 73</strong></p>
<h4 id="south-carolina-3-10-at-georgia-7-9">South Carolina (3-10) at Georgia (7-9)</h4>
<p>South Carolina has had some bad games throughout this season, but they’re on one of their worst stretch of games after losing each of their last three contests by 20, 15, and 21 points respectively. Georgia on the other hand has been finishing the year strong, including wins over Missouri and LSU in their last three games.</p>
<p>Georgia has won their last four games at home and Sahvir Wheeler has gone on another run of impressive games including a triple-double this week against LSU. I expected Wheeler to truly break out next year, but him being slightly ahead of schedule is only better for the Bulldogs.</p>
<p>With this game being at Georgia and both teams trending in almost complete opposite directions, it seems pretty easy to pick the Bulldogs in this one. For South Carolina to have a chance in this one, AJ Lawson will have to produce a lot of points and Justin Minaya and Keyshawn Bryant should really test the size mismatch they’ll have against Georgia. The Bulldogs still have the second-worst defense in the SEC, but their offense has been improving, especially lately.</p>
<p>This game will be a fast-paced game between the fourth and fifth-fastest teams in the SEC currently. I expect Sahvir Wheeler to have another big game and lead the Bulldogs to a second-straight win and set up an interesting rematch against Alabama next Saturday.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Georgia 90, South Carolina 75</strong></p>
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<h4 id="lsu-9-5-at-arkansas-10-4">LSU (9-5) at Arkansas (10-4)</h4>
<p>LSU was looking almost as good as Arkansas coming into this week and technically still had a shot to challenge Alabama for a share of the regular-season championship. However, LSU became the most recent team to suffer a loss in Stegeman Coliseum and are not fully out of the race for a regular-season title.</p>
<p>Arkansas had a much more important game earlier in the week and made the most of a lopsided foul differential and put Alabama away to keep a slight shot at a share of the SEC regular-season title alive. Arkansas has now won eight-straight SEC games, and with a home win over LSU, they could set themselves up to stretch that run to the end of the regular season.</p>
<p>If Arkansas were to finish the regular season on this winning streak, their 11-game streak would top Alabama’s ten-game streak that started SEC play, and that would be their only shot at a share of the SEC title. Alabama would still have to help out with some losses, but Arkansas is the only team that can potentially share the title with them, and that could be even more motivation to keep playing well against LSU.</p>
<p>The Tigers got decent games from three of their four main guys against Georgia, but to win at Arkansas, they’ll need all of their best players to step up. Arkansas has been playing better defense week after week, and they have enough different offensive weapons to win a high-scoring game as well. LSU has the best offense in the SEC, but I think Arkansas will be able to slow it down just enough where they’re able to get the ninth SEC win in a row.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Arkansas 82, LSU 74</strong></p>
<h4 id="ole-miss-8-7-at-vanderbilt-2-11">Ole Miss (8-7) at Vanderbilt (2-11)</h4>
<p>That loss to Mississippi State could still be a final blow to Ole Miss’s at-large hopes, but the road win against Missouri at least helped them out and kept the door cracked. They’ll now need to keep it up and can’t afford to lose to another team as low as Vanderbilt.</p>
<p>The Commodores were starting to become a sneaky good team with great play from Scotty Pippen Jr. and Dylan Disu, but now with both those guys dealing with varying levels of injury, I’m not sure Vanderbilt will be able to score enough points on a pretty good Ole Miss defense.</p>
<p>Ole Miss’s offense hasn’t been great, but as long as Devontae Shuler and others are able to not have a completely terrible game, they should have no problem putting up points on Vanderbilt’s worst defense in the SEC. There were moments this year that Vanderbilt looked like they could finish above the last place for the first time since 2018, but with the most recent injuries, that seems like it could be more difficult than it looked a week ago.</p>
<p>I think Ole Miss will win this one and set up for a battle with Kentucky next week as both teams cling to any slight chance of making the big dance.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Ole Miss 74, Vanderbilt 67</strong></p>
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<h4 id="florida-8-5-at-kentucky-7-7">Florida (8-5) at Kentucky (7-7)</h4>
<p>Florida had a huge first half against a Sharife Cooper-less Auburn team on the road on Wednesday. It would have been nice to see the Gators keep their foot on the gas in the second half, but they still walked away with an almost 20-point road win against a talented, but inexperienced Auburn team.</p>
<p>Kentucky has been figuring things out lately, but they’re still in the same boat as Auburn in terms of talent and experience levels. Kentucky has more to play for as they need to win out and likely win the SEC Tournament just to get to the NCAA Tournament.</p>
<p>I hate to be that guy, but based on Kentucky needing to win out, the way their playing, and the belief that it’s just too good of a story for the Wildcats (and the SEC) this just seems like another game where Kentucky will find a way to win and possibly even get some fortunate “luck” to go their way after almost none of it did early in the season.</p>
<p>Florida has looked good for the most part, but I think this is a game where not having their best player catches up to them again. Colin Casleton has been able to thrive against smaller teams, but Isaiah Jackson and Olivier Sarr should be a combo that can really limit him and give Florida issues on the other end.</p>
<p>Kentucky wins their fourth-straight game, to match their equally long losing streak just a few weeks ago.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Kentucky 72, Florida 69</strong></p>
<h4 id="alabama-13-2-at-mississippi-state-7-8">Alabama (13-2) at Mississippi State (7-8)</h4>
<p>I picked Alabama to lose at Arkansas on Wednesday because I believed Arkansas has caught up to the Tide and both teams were trending in slightly different directions. I did not expect Arkansas to win as comfortably as they did, but I think the way the foul differential did any favors in regards to the final margin of victory.</p>
<p>The most concerning thing about that loss for Alabama was their reaction down the stretch. I don’t blame them for being frustrated, but they seemed to start losing their cool even before the game got fully out of hand. The Crimson Tide need to put that game behind them and know that they are still in a strong position to clinch the SEC regular-season title with a win in any of the next three games.</p>
<p>In order to avoid more pressure and to show that they’re not actually trending downwards, Alabama really needs to win this game at Mississippi State. Despite the Bulldogs playing much better in their last two games, they had lost six of their last seven before that and currently have the second to last offense in the SEC.</p>
<p>Alabama’s defense keeps them in games and makes them the great team that they are, even when shots are falling. Mississippi State can possibly win this if Iverson Molinar, DJ Stewart Jr., and Tolu Smith all have big games and Alabama has another disastrous night from behind the arc. Otherwise, I think Alabama’s defense is just too good and they’ll bounce back from the loss to Arkansas and go ahead and get the SEC title clinched so they can start focusing on even bigger things in the postseason.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Alabama 80, Mississippi State 64</strong></p>
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</script></p>Jacob VarnerThe second to last weekend of SEC regular-season games is here, and everyone but Texas A&M is available once again. Alabama appears to be the only team to have clinched a double-bye in the SEC Tournament, so seven other teams still have a good bit to play for over the final few games, including some important matchups on Saturday.SEC Basketball Picks and Predictions - 2021 Week 9A2021-02-23T00:00:00-06:002021-02-23T00:00:00-06:00https://hoops.jacobvarner.com/2021/02/23/sec-basketball-picks-and-predictions-2021-week-9a<p>Saturday’s seemingly one-sided matchups ended up providing a day with plenty of upsets and even more almost upsets. These midweek games already appear to have more interesting matchups, including one of the best we’ve had all year when Alabama travels to Arkansas, so I have high expectations for the quality of games this week.</p>
<p>Texas A&M had to delay another game, this time against Kentucky, so instead of the Wildcats getting to build on their quickly progressing winning streak, the Aggies will likely finish the season with almost half the games played as the rest of the league.</p>
<p>Alabama at Arkansas is obviously the biggest game of the week, but Tennessee at Vanderbilt, Florida at Auburn, and even Ole Miss at Missouri could all be pivotal games the those first two having the opportunity to be potential upsets.</p>
<p>Even with Arkansas at Texas A&M game getting postponed and Ole Miss and Tennessee suffering upsets, I managed to go 4-2 on my picks for Saturday’s games and I’m now 65-35 on the season with just a few games left.</p>
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<h4 id="lsu-9-4-at-georgia-6-9">LSU (9-4) at Georgia (6-9)</h4>
<p>LSU certainly looked to have everything figured out on offense against Auburn. Some of that is because the Tigers are one of the best offensive teams in the country and are hitting their stride, but a lot is also due to Auburn’s poor defense.</p>
<p>Fortunately for LSU, Georgia has an even worse defense than Auburn and this could serve as another game where they can keep things rolling and keep building momentum for the postseason. The goal in this game for the Tigers will be to keep Georgia’s offense from hanging around like they’ve been able to do against teams like Tennessee and Florida recently.</p>
<p>Georgia playing at home will give them a little bit more of a chance since they have not lost in Stegeman Coliseum since hosting Florida exactly a month ago. Georgia plays fast enough and with enough energy, that they’re capable of giving teams a scare, or even finishing off the upset as they did against a Jeremiah Tilmon-less Missouri, but LSU is playing like one of the top teams in the league right now and I think Georgia won’t be able to keep up in a shootout and really won’t be able to slow LSU down.</p>
<p>I don’t expect LSU to have as impressive of a shooting night as they did against Auburn, but they might be able to get even more points inside from guys like Darius Days and Trendon Watford. At this point, only LSU and Arkansas have a slight chance of catching Alabama at the top of the standings, and while Arkansas gets to directly affect that this week, LSU just has to win out.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: LSU 93, Georgia 80</strong></p>
<h4 id="florida-7-5-at-auburn-5-9">Florida (7-5) at Auburn (5-9)</h4>
<p>The challenge for Auburn in this one will be coming up with enough motivation to play to their potential in this one. The Tigers would have to win out, including a makeup game against Mississippi State just to finish 0.500 in SEC play this season, and with no postseason to look forward to, even that is the smallest of accomplishments for this season.</p>
<p>These two teams will want to play at two different paces, and that again is something that Auburn can use to give them an advantage, especially at home with Sharife Cooper running the show. Florida’s defense is statistically middle-of-the-pack in the SEC, but it’s not nearly as good as what Auburn will face the rest of the way against Tennessee and Alabama, who are second and first respectively right now.</p>
<p>An Auburn team playing at home usually hits a few more shots, but they’ll need a much better defensive performance than they’ve shown over the past few games to win this one. Colin Castleton is going to give the Tigers issues, but looking back to the game against Missouri for Auburn, they’ve at least shown somewhat recently that they can score enough to win, even with a big man dominating their frontcourt.</p>
<p>If Auburn can play to their potential, and that’s a big if, the Tigers should have more talent than the Gators. Florida also let Georgia hang around on Saturday even when the Bulldogs had a miserable start. I think both of these teams have had slightly disappointing seasons and both can likely blame that on issues outside of their control, but Florida has more to play for in this game, like seeding in the NCAA and SEC tournaments coming up soon.</p>
<p>I think Auburn can keep this close, but based on their recent performances, even at home, it’s hard to feel confident in picking the Tigers.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Florida 78, Auburn 76</strong></p>
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<h4 id="ole-miss-7-7-at-missouri-7-6">Ole Miss (7-7) at Missouri (7-6)</h4>
<p>Ole Miss is likely going to need an SEC Tournament run if they want to make the NCAA Tournament now after their loss to rival Mississippi State on Saturday. Missouri on the other hand got a big win over South Carolina with the return of Jeremiah Tilmon, who is the most important player for a very experienced Tigers team and might be one of the best players in the SEC this season.</p>
<p>There’s no doubt that a statement win at Missouri could really help the Rebels in their pursuit of an at-large bid, but it’s going to take a much better performance from Devontae Shuler than he had on Saturday.</p>
<p>Another big game from Romello White, like he had against Auburn and others recently, would help level the competition in the frontcourt, but I still think Jeremiah Tilmon and Mitchell Smith will be too much for Ole Miss to overcome.</p>
<p>Missouri lost the first matchup, and it wasn’t close, which launched Ole Miss onto a nice run of their own. That run now appears to be over for Ole Miss and the revenge factor could give Missouri even more of an advantage at home. In the last rematch that the Tigers had against a team that won the first matchup, they flipped the result from a 20-point loss to a 9-point win against Tennessee. Interestingly enough, Missouri lost the last matchup by 21, and it was on Ole Miss’s home court.</p>
<p>With Jeremiah Tilmon back and with a game under his belt after his return, I think the Tigers have enough to get this win and keep their hopes of a higher seed in the SEC Tournament alive.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Missouri 60, Ole Miss 56</strong></p>
<h4 id="south-carolina-3-9-at-mississippi-state-6-8">South Carolina (3-9) at Mississippi State (6-8)</h4>
<p>Mississippi State got an impressive win over rival Ole Miss on Saturday, so that keeps this game from being a total non-factor, but both teams are still firmly at the bottom of the SEC right now.</p>
<p>South Carolina is on a five-game SEC losing streak while Mississippi State has lost six of their last eight, including one of the wins being at South Carolina a few weeks ago.</p>
<p>Based on their recent win over Ole Miss and the fact that Mississippi State already won the first matchup on the road, they seem to be a pretty easy favorite here. If their key players DJ Stewart Jr., Iverson Molinar, and Tolu Smith all show up, this could be a good opportunity to start another winning streak.</p>
<p>Mississippi State hasn’t been great as of late, but with this game against South Carolina, a road trip to Texas A&M, and a makeup game against Auburn still on the schedule, there is still a decent chance they could finish 0.500 in SEC play, which would be a good result after all of their turnover in the offseason.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Mississippi State 65, South Carolina 59</strong></p>
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<h4 id="tennessee-8-6-at-vanderbilt-2-10">Tennessee (8-6) at Vanderbilt (2-10)</h4>
<p>Tennessee comes into this game with a 7-game winning streak against the Commodores while the Volunteers only have four other winning streaks against SEC teams and none of those are more than a single game. Tennessee also just lost at home to Kentucky in a game that wasn’t close while Vanderbilt only lost to the Wildcats by four in the same week.</p>
<p>Even at just 2-10 in the SEC, Vanderbilt just always tempts me to pick them with these timely matchups and a dangerous offense led by Scotty Pippen Jr. and now Dylan Disu. Tennessee has owned the state for the past few years, but this might not be an easy win for the Volunteers based on how they played against Kentucky.</p>
<p>This is another matchup between two teams that are almost complete opposites. Tennessee has the second-best defense in the SEC, but the 11th-best offense, which can seem even worse than that in some games. Vanderbilt’s offense hasn’t been an issue this year as they’ve climbed to sixth in the SEC on that side at 1.038 points per possession. However, the Commodores are giving up over 1.105 points per possession as the worst defense in the league.</p>
<p>Tennessee will need Josiah-Jordan James and Yves Pons to be healthy in this one because the way they’re trending nationally, they can’t afford to let this be the game where Vanderbilt finally wins. If the Volunteer offense can’t put up points against this Vanderbilt defense, there are some big questions that will need to be answered in just a short period of time before the NCAA Tournament tips off.</p>
<p>Vanderbilt has let me down every time I pick them, and I still think Tennessee has to be good enough to beat a team like Vanderbilt, but I think the Commodores could jump out to a lead in this one and it will be much closer than it should be.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Tennessee 72, Vanderbilt 68</strong></p>
<h4 id="alabama-13-1-at-arkansas-9-4">Alabama (13-1) at Arkansas (9-4)</h4>
<p>The SEC conveniently saved the best game of the week, and possibly one of the best games of the year, for the last game on Wednesday. Alabama has looked vulnerable against Vanderbilt and on the road against South Carolina, so they’ll need to figure that out quickly if they want to clinch at least a share of the SEC regular-season title in Bud Walton Arena.</p>
<p>Alabama’s offense slipped to second in the SEC after this weekend, but their defense has been keeping them in every game and still has a large lead over the rest of the league. Arkansas has been playing better defense lately, and it’s a large part of how they’ve managed to win seven straight games, but the Razorbacks still give up almost eight more points per possession than Alabama does, despite being the third-best defense in the SEC.</p>
<p>It’s really hard to pick against Alabama because even in games where they don’t play well, they just have so much talent and play so well together in Nate Oats’ system that they find ways to win almost every game. The rivalry aspect aside with Auburn, this is definitely Alabama’s most difficult matchup the rest of the way and is probably one of the toughest games they’ve had all season.</p>
<p>The Alabama team from the early part of SEC play blew through their tough matchups, but not the Crimson Tide have slowed down a little bit and now face a very talented Razorbacks team that is on a massive winning streak and is as good as they’ve been anytime in the last two decades.</p>
<p>The Auburn grad in me hasn’t been able to actually pick against Alabama this year with how dominant they’ve been, but I’m going to take the one chance I have and take the Razorbacks at home in a close one. It’s hard to say Arkansas has the “hotter team” when Alabama has won 13 of their last 14 SEC games, but the Razorbacks have not lost to another SEC team since losing by 31 in Tuscaloosa, and I think this top-20 matchup serves as a perfect opportunity for them to get their revenge.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Arkansas 73, Alabama 72</strong></p>
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</script></p>Jacob VarnerSaturday’s seemingly one-sided matchups ended up providing a day with plenty of upsets and even more almost upsets. These midweek games already appear to have more interesting matchups, including one of the best we’ve had all year when Alabama travels to Arkansas, so I have high expectations for the quality of games this week.SEC Basketball Power Rankings: With Very Little Movement This Week Kentucky Might Be Getting Dangerous2021-02-21T00:00:00-06:002021-02-21T00:00:00-06:00https://hoops.jacobvarner.com/2021/02/21/sec-basketball-power-rankings-with-very-little-movement-this-week-kentucky-might-be-getting-dangerous<p>Whether it was the additional schedule craziness that the winter storm added, or just that each of the matchups seemed too straightforward on paper, there was quite the wild week on the SEC basketball courts, especially on Saturday.</p>
<p>Mississippi State and Kentucky both pulled off pretty big upsets and teams like Georgia and Vanderbilt came fairly close to getting their own.</p>
<p>While the league was appearing to clearly separate into a few tiers the last couple of weeks, it seems like things are more up in the air again. Alabama might have some challengers at the top (in terms of how they’re playing now, not really in the standings) with Arkansas and LSU both looking really good right now.</p>
<p>Kentucky made a big statement against Tennessee to extend their current winning streak to three games and pull their SEC record back to an even 7-7. It appears that the Wildcats will be a team everyone wants to avoid at the SEC Tournament, but are they peaking too early after digging too large of a hole for an at-large bid?</p>
<p>With all that said, enjoy my updated SEC basketball power rankings. As always, if you’d like to discuss them or have a disagreement, the best place to reach out is <a href="https://www.twitter.com/jacobvarner">on Twitter</a>. Thanks for reading.</p>
<p><em>My method for power rankings is whom I think will win a game between two teams on a neutral court if the game was played at the time of the rankings. For instance, I would pick the number one team to beat every team ranked below it on a neutral court and the fourth-ranked team would be favored over everyone other than the top three teams. I consider the entire season as a basis for how good I think the team is, but if a team is missing key players or is in a slump, that can weigh more in my current power rankings, even if a team is better overall for the season.</em></p>
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<h4 id="14-texas-am-aggies">14. Texas A&M Aggies</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 14</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> No games played</p>
<p>Another week and another set of delayed games for the Aggies. This time it was due to a devastating winter storm that hit Texas this week. Without power, water, and clear roadways for most of the week here in Texas, missing two games for the Aggies seems like a small issue this week.</p>
<h4 id="13-south-carolina-gamecocks">13. South Carolina Gamecocks</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 13</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Lost at Tennessee 73-93, Lost vs Missouri 78-93</p>
<p>South Carolina gave up back-to-back 93-point games and what was an “up-and-down” year is quickly turning into just a down year for the Gamecocks. While they lost to two of the better teams in SEC play, neither team is playing at their best, which makes the losses just a slight highlight of the week for both teams and not a good sign for South Carolina.</p>
<p>The Gamecocks continue to slip in the SEC standings and their stats don’t help them out either. South Carolina is down to the 10th best offense at just barely above 1 point per possession and their defense is 11th in SEC play and is giving up 1.066 points per possession. AJ Lawson cannot keep the Gamecocks alive if other players are not able to step up. Frank Martin is trying other starting line-ups, including Keyshawn Bryant, but it’s not making a big difference for the Gamecocks.</p>
<p>I counted on Frank Martin to figure things out a little too much this year and it seems that he just doesn’t have the talent to keep up with the other SEC teams. There seem to be a few other people mentioning that he might not last at South Carolina, but I can’t think of anyone that would be better in his position. His issue will be recruiting better players to keep up with the rest of the rise in talent in the SEC while managing to stick to his type of guy and continuing to out-coach other guys in the SEC.</p>
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<h4 id="12-vanderbilt-commodores">12. Vanderbilt Commodores</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 11</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Lost vs Kentucky 78-82, Lost at Alabama 78-82</p>
<p>As I feel like I’ve said most of the year, Vanderbilt looks much better than their record shows, but they just can’t manage to actually get wins.</p>
<p>Dylan Disu has stepped up even more lately and gives the Commodores a good inside-outside combo along with Scotty Pippen Jr. The issue is that there is a pretty big drop-off from the few good guys on the roster to the rest of the team. They can keep Vanderbilt in most games, but down the stretch, if a team figures out how to limit the go-to options, Vanderbilt can’t find a way to get the win.</p>
<p>Giving up 82 points twice this week caused the defense to slip back into last place in the SEC with a rating of 110.5. The offense is still decent as the sixth-most efficient in SEC play, scoring 1.038 points per possession, but a team has to make some stops if they’re going to actually get wins and move up my power rankings.</p>
<h4 id="11-mississippi-state-bulldogs">11. Mississippi State Bulldogs</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 12</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Won at Ole Miss 66-56</p>
<p>With their midweek game against Auburn getting delayed and then further delayed to later in the season, Mississippi State had extra time to prepare for their rivalry game against Ole Miss and it seems the extra preparation paid off as they were able to get revenge and return the favor on Ole Miss’s own floor.</p>
<p>The main three players for Mississippi State, DJ Stewart Jr., Iverson Molinar, and Tolu Smith, each scored in double-figures, shot over 45% from the field, and were a combined 11-13 from the free throw line. In a low possession game, the efficiency was especially helpful.</p>
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<h4 id="10-auburn-tigers">10. Auburn Tigers</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 10</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Lost at LSU 80-104</p>
<p>Without being able to see Auburn against a team like Mississippi State this week, it’s hard to tell just how bad the defense is because while it looked terrible against LSU, those Tigers have the best offense in the SEC and had an exceptionally good night shooting the ball on top of it.</p>
<p>While Sharife Cooper continues to be exceptional, the gap between him and the rest of Auburn’s production seems to be widening. Against LSU, Cooper had to carry almost the entire load in the scoring department and finished with just two assists, a season-low. The offense as a whole was still pretty good and managed to score over 1 point per possession against LSU, which moved Auburn up to the third-best offensive rating in SEC play. The defense is the obvious issue for Auburn, but more consistency from at least one other offensive weapon could also help the Tigers.</p>
<p>With no postseason to look forward to or use as motivation, it’s hard to see Auburn turning things around in this final stretch against good teams in Florida, Tennessee, and Alabama. Maybe playing at home will help against Florida and Tennessee or Bruce Pearl will beat the Volunteers again this year to at least bring some normalcy to a down year for the Tigers, but it seems like a rescheduled game against Mississippi State is the best bet for Auburn to get one final win this season.</p>
<h4 id="9-georgia-bulldogs">9. Georgia Bulldogs</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 9</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Won vs Missouri 80-70, Lost at Florida 63-70</p>
<p>Georgia made the most of their opportunity to face Missouri without Jeremiah Tilmon and came away with another great win. A really slow start against Florida proved to be too much, but Sahvir Wheeler almost willed them out of that game as well.</p>
<p>Wheeler started the year off as one of the best point guards in the league, but over time, he started to regress a little bit as Sharife Cooper and others took the spotlight. There aren’t enough games left this season for Wheeler to really take back that top spot as the best point guard in the league, but he’s certainly setting himself up to be the frontrunner going into next season.</p>
<p>The Bulldogs are still having issues with rebounding and turnovers, but when the offense is on, it’s almost enough to make up for their still struggling defense. A poor defensive performance from Vanderbilt at least allowed Georgia to give up their claim to the worst defensive rating in the SEC, at least currently.</p>
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<h4 id="8-tennessee-volunteers">8. Tennessee Volunteers</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 7</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Won vs South Carolina 93-73, Lost vs Kentucky 55-70</p>
<p>The big loss to Kentucky was just a perfect sign of how Tennessee’s season has gone. After getting a road win over the Wildcats just a few weeks ago, the offense could barely do anything at home and Kentucky got revenge in a large way.</p>
<p>Just as Tennessee was riding the high scoring of Jaden Springer, his bad game led to another awful performance from the offense as a whole. Playing without Josiah-Jordan James also didn’t do the Volunteers any favors. If Tennessee is going to rally and make a run down the stretch and into the postseason, they are going to need to get more out of their very talented and experienced roster.</p>
<p>There is still time to salvage the season, but barring a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, this team just seems like they will fall way short of their big expectations coming into the season.</p>
<h4 id="7-ole-miss-rebels">7. Ole Miss Rebels</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 5</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Lost vs Mississippi State 56-66</p>
<p>A home loss to Mississippi State might have been a final blow to Ole Miss’s chances at making it into the NCAA Tournament with an at-large bid. Ole Miss was just starting to seriously climb into the conversation, but this loss most likely erases all of that progress that was built over their previous four-game win streak.</p>
<p>Similar to Tennessee, just as Jaden Springer’s bad game doomed the Volunteers, Devontae Shuler’s horrible shooting night caused the Ole Miss offense to return to its poor form from earlier in the season. The Rebels got the slow, low possession game that they usually like, but Mississippi State enjoys that style of play just as much and was able to make more shots to take advantage of it.</p>
<p>Rivalry games can lead to seemingly odd results like this, so it might not be too bad of a sign for Ole Miss, but it’s still a bad loss that won’t go away, no matter how good their numbers look otherwise. With another game against Missouri as well as a trip to Vanderbilt this next week, Ole Miss will need to bounce back quickly or they can fall down my power rankings and the SEC standings just as fast as they rose up both.</p>
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<h4 id="6-kentucky-wildcats">6. Kentucky Wildcats</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 8</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Won at Vanderbilt 82-78, Won at Tennessee 70-55</p>
<p>The close wins over Auburn and Vanderbilt still left room for questions about how much better Kentucky has gotten, but the big win on the road over Tennessee made it clear that the Wildcats are now likely at the top of every other team’s list of teams they don’t want to face right now.</p>
<p>Kentucky is starting to get more even contributions from multiple guys on the team and that is what seems to be making their offense click while the defense can still step up and shut a team down as they did against the Volunteers. It’s hard to say who is the best player for Kentucky right now and that’s a good problem to have. At times recently it was Brandon Boston Jr. stepping up and other times it was Keion Brooks Jr., but now Calipari seems to be able to rely on the likes of Olivier Sarr, Davion Mintz, and Isaiah Jackson even more.</p>
<p>It still seems like the only way Kentucky will make it to the NCAA Tournament is by winning the SEC Tournament, but if they keep this up, that might become a pretty realistic possibility, especially since the Wildcats have a pretty good track record in Nashville.</p>
<h4 id="5-missouri-tigers">5. Missouri Tigers</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 5</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Lost vs Georgia 70-80, Won at South Carolina 93-78</p>
<p>Missouri worried me with their three-game losing streak against SEC opponents, but the win on the road against South Carolina gives me a good indication that Missouri may not be in too much trouble,</p>
<p>With Jeremiah Tilmon back in the lineup, Missouri might not have as much to worry about, but if he has to suddenly miss time, I’m not sure how much value Missouri has. The Tigers are a good team with a lot of experience, but they aren’t the most favored units in terms of enhancement.</p>
<p>The non-conference schedule will be plenty to carry the Tigers to the postseason, but outside of a close win over Alabama in SEC play, Missouri leaves a lot to be desired as far as the conference schedule is concerned.</p>
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<h4 id="4-florida-gators">4. Florida Gators</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 3</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Loss at Arkansas 64-75, Win vs Georgia 70-63</p>
<p>Florida went just 1-1 this week, but with a loss to a team in second-place in my power rankings and a win over just the ninth-place team in my rankings, the Florida Gators are safe in the fourth spot.</p>
<p>The Gators are doing well statistically at fourth overall in offensive rating at 1.045 points per possession along with just the seventh-overall defense at 1.013 points per possession which gives the fourth-best net rating of +3.17 points per game.</p>
<p>Florida’s go-to player may just be Colin Castleton for now, but the Gators still have plenty of talent and offensive power to make a run at the SEC Tournament Championship if they’re not able to cut into Alabama’s large lead in the SEC championship debate.</p>
<h4 id="3-lsu-tigers">3. LSU Tigers</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 4</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Win vs Auburn 104-80</p>
<p>It’s a shame that LSU wasn’t able to face Ole Miss again, but based on the results of each of their games, it might not have been as good as I expected.</p>
<p>LSU instead had an incredible shooting performance against a bad Auburn defense and managed to get the 24-point win along with hitting triple-digits. The big four for LSU continue to step up and as long as all of them are playing well, the Tigers are a team to reckon with in the SEC. Also, when LSU makes three-pointers as they did against Auburn, I’m not sure many teams can beat the Tigers, especially at home.</p>
<p>If Cameron Thomas can continue to carry the point load for LSU and the other key players can play well, the Tigers will be a hard team to take down in SEC play and in the postseason. Thomas’s efficiency can still be a problem, but his overall scoring contribution is still enough to lead the SEC.</p>
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<h4 id="2-arkansas-razorbacks">2. Arkansas Razorbacks</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 2</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Win vs Florida 75-64</p>
<p>Arkansas missed out on a presumed second win against Texas A&M on Saturday, but the Razorbacks still got a big win over Florida at home to extend their winning streak to seven games. Arkansas might have been able to use the game against Texas A&M as a nice warm-up, but their standing in my power rankings will ultimately come down to their performance against Alabama next Wednesday.</p>
<p>After all the games from this week, Arkansas still holds the fifth-best offense and third-best defense which balances out for the third-best net rating in SEC play so far. Arkansas is good and has plenty of weapons to keep their momentum pushing forward. I still think Alabama’s overall performance for the year is hard to pick against, but the way Arkansas is playing right now, they might have a slight advantage at home next week.</p>
<h4 id="1-alabama-crimson-tide">1. Alabama Crimson Tide</h4>
<p><strong>Previous:</strong> 1</p>
<p><strong>Last Week:</strong> Won vs Vanderbilt 82-78</p>
<p>After missing their game at Texas A&M this week, Alabama survived a scare from Vanderbilt on senior day with the 4-point win, but they weren’t able to clinch the SEC regular-season conference championship outright.</p>
<p>The Crimson Tide still has four more wins than anyone else in the league and with just one loss, they’re a game away from still clinching the SEC regular-season title. With LSU’s big win against Auburn and the off-shooting night against Vanderbilt, Alabama no longer holds claim to the best offense in SEC play. The Crimson Tide are still the best defense in the SEC giving up just 0.912 points per possession and are far-and-away the best team in net rating at +18.52 points per possession.</p>
<p>Jordan Bruner returned in limited minutes against Vanderbilt on senior day, but his return could be a big boost for Alabama. Even with his minimal production in the return, Bruner is still a top-15 player in my SEC player rankings and will be a key piece for Alabama if they are going to make a big postseason run.</p>
<p>Jaden Shackelford also had a big game against Vanderbilt while he and Jahvon Quinerly will be key pieces in determining the ceiling for Alabama. If Herbert Jones can stay out of foul trouble and John Petty Jr. is shooting well, the addition of Shackelford, Quinerly, Bruner, and even Alex Reese make Alabama the great team that they were through the first half of the SEC conference schedule.</p>
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</script></p>Jacob VarnerWhether it was the additional schedule craziness that the winter storm added, or just that each of the matchups seemed too straightforward on paper, there was quite the wild week on the SEC basketball courts, especially on Saturday.SEC Basketball Picks and Predictions - 2021 Week 8B2021-02-19T00:00:00-06:002021-02-19T00:00:00-06:00https://hoops.jacobvarner.com/2021/02/19/sec-basketball-picks-and-predictions-2021-week-8b<p>While the SEC was supposed to get their first full slate of games last week, a massive winter storm across Texas and most of the South had other plans. Games that were originally rescheduled for Thursday had to be postponed after all which adds even more games to the long list of games some SEC teams need to make up before the end of the season that is fast approaching.</p>
<p>Now the weather should be better everywhere so that we get a full slate of Saturday games, but at first glance, it looks like each one should have a favored team in every matchup. The seven teams that are either likely to make the NCAA Tournament or on the cusp will each be playing a team that likely won’t be playing in the postseason without an SEC Tournament auto bid.</p>
<p>There are some of these games that might be closer on paper than people think, and this Saturday might end up being a day with lots of surprises, but for my picks, I’ve gone all “chalk” for who I think will be the favorite for most people, without looking at official lines.</p>
<p>I went just 2-2 in the games that were able to be played so far this week, so I’m now 61-33 on the year.</p>
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<h4 id="kentucky-6-7-at-tennessee-8-5">Kentucky (6-7) at Tennessee (8-5)</h4>
<p>It’s hard to tell if Kentucky’s offense is getting better or their last two wins were just a result of playing two of the lesser defenses in the SEC against Auburn and Vanderbilt. Playing at Tennessee will surely make it clear which is more the case since the Volunteers still have the second-most efficient defense in the SEC.</p>
<p>While Kentucky’s offense is up to the ninth-best in the SEC now, their defense is only seventh. Tennessee is right ahead of them in the offense now, at 1.013 points per possession, and as I mentioned the defense is still safely statistically better than the Wildcats.</p>
<p>Tennessee’s two top freshmen, Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer have had the benefit of slowly getting better throughout the year while they aren’t relied on for carrying the team’s success. Kentucky’s many talented freshmen didn’t have that chance, and it showed, especially with the missing practice time before the year. Their just now starting to look a little bit better, but I still don’t think they have what it takes to knock off one of the top teams in the league that is starting to play a little bit better.</p>
<p>If Tennessee’s offense doesn’t show up, Kentucky might be able to get a big upset, but with the number of different options the Volunteers have that can step up in each game, it’s hard to see them going so flat again.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Tennessee 68, Kentucky 64</strong></p>
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<h4 id="vanderbilt-2-9-at-alabama-12-1">Vanderbilt (2-9) at Alabama (12-1)</h4>
<p>Vanderbilt almost did enough in the second half against Kentucky to make my crazy pick look smart. However, the Commodores still came up short, despite a massive game from Dylan Disu, and will not have to travel to face an Alabama team that continues to look better than every other team in the SEC and will be looking to clinch the regular-season title soon.</p>
<p>Despite giving up his starting role to Josh Primo in SEC play, Jahvon Quinerly has found ways to be productive on offense and is now shooting over 53% from behind the arc in SEC play. Quinerly has the second-best three-point percentage in SEC play for Alabama behind only Herbert Jones and has more makes than everyone on the Crimson Tide other than John Petty Jr. and Josh Primo.</p>
<p>I mention Quinerly because having a very good second option coming off the bench will be a key for Alabama to go as far as they can in the postseason. This game will also be a good chance for him and others to show what they have on defense when they face Scotty Pippen Jr., who has been one of the many good guards in the SEC this season.</p>
<p>Dylan Disu had a great game against Kentucky and was good enough to launch him all the way up to second in my SEC player rankings. Now he and Scotty Pippen Jr. are both in my top-5 for now. The issue is that they’re just doing it all on their own for the most part and their production has not led to many wins for Vanderbilt. Alabama has been on the opposite side of that coin, especially in SEC play, where players don’t look as good as they might be statistically because the team is so deep and plays so well with each other.</p>
<p>Disu and Pippen Jr. might put on a slight show, but Alabama is a way better team in this one, and without having to go to Memorial Gym, it shouldn’t be close.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Alabama 95, Vanderbilt 82</strong></p>
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<h4 id="missouri-6-6-at-south-carolina-3-8">Missouri (6-6) at South Carolina (3-8)</h4>
<p>Missouri has now lost three straight games, most recently against Georgia, and while they were without Jeremiah Tilmon for two of them, they can’t afford to lose to this South Carolina team if they want to stay comfortably in the NCAA Tournament discussion.</p>
<p>Cuonzo Martin said that Tilmon is back and should play for Missouri against South Carolina. That’s big news for the Tigers, but he’ll still be needed to get a win over the Gamecocks, who have been trending even further down lately but have shown they’re capable of upsetting teams still like they did against Florida a few weeks ago. Tilmon had just six points and six rebounds in his last game, a blowout against Ole Miss, so hopefully, he’s shaken off the rust from his two-game break from the team.</p>
<p>Like the two teams I picked above, Missouri should be able to beat South Carolina, but they’re the first “better” team to not have the home-court advantage as well. I want to say that Missouri will win this game handily and reassure me and others that the last three games were just a bad stretch, but it’s hard to overlook the way they lost to Ole Miss and the concerning road loss at Georgia, even without Tilmon.</p>
<p>South Carolina kept things interesting for a little bit against Tennessee before the Volunteers pulled away. If they can keep this game close, it’ll force Missouri to prove that they can finish a game well, which hasn’t been their strong suit for most of this season.</p>
<p>I’m going to stick with Missouri, but I wouldn’t be shocked if this one ends in another upset for South Carolina, since they’re fully capable of beating good teams if they play their best.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Missouri 74, South Carolina 71</strong></p>
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<h4 id="georgia-6-8-at-florida-6-5">Georgia (6-8) at Florida (6-5)</h4>
<p>After a four-game losing streak, including blowouts at the hands of Arkansas and Auburn, Georgia has now won four of their last six and six of their last eight to be knocking on the door of the top half of the SEC standings.</p>
<p>The Bulldogs will now have a chance to catch Florida on their home court and see if they’re able to pull the upset that South Carolina was able to do right before the Gators went on a stretch of postponed games. Florida is currently on a two-game losing streak after letting Arkansas pull away at the end of their first game back, so this will be a game the Gators need to win if they want to stay above 0.500 in SEC play.</p>
<p>Even without Keyontae Johnson, Florida has the players to be more successful than they’ve been this season. Georgia on the other hand doesn’t appear to have anyone that was expected to be a goto guy but has still managed to figure things out lately and play the role of a dangerous team in the SEC.</p>
<p>By the numbers, Florida still looks like one of the better teams in the SEC and the country, but they can’t afford another loss in a game like this after letting South Carolina take them down on their own home court. I liked what I saw for most of the second half against Arkansas and think that the Gators can get more of that against Georgia’s defense which is still the worst in the SEC.</p>
<p>Georgia will bring enough energy to prevent this from being a blowout, but Florida is still too talented of a team to give the Bulldogs a big chance when playing at home.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Florida 82, Georgia 74</strong></p>
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<h4 id="auburn-5-8-at-lsu-8-4">Auburn (5-8) at LSU (8-4)</h4>
<p>Auburn had their home game against Mississippi State postponed due to weather last Thursday, and will now have to jump straight into their tough final four-game stretch without that game to get an easier win.</p>
<p>LSU didn’t get their recently scheduled game against Ole Miss either, so both teams will be coming in with the same week of rest.</p>
<p>While each of these teams is on the opposite ends of the SEC standings, they’re actually very similar statistically. LSU has the slightly better offense in SEC play at 1.088 points per possession (Auburn’s at 1.059), but Auburn has a slightly better defense giving up just 1.039 points per possession compared to LSU’s 1.049. Both teams are also in the top-6 of pace in a conference that has been one of the quicker ones in the country this year, so this will likely be a shootout.</p>
<p>If it does become a shootout, I don’t think it will be one that Auburn can keep up with. While Auburn has several options that are capable of stepping up and adding a major scoring presence, none of them will be able to do so as well as Cameron Thomas has this season. Along with Thoams, LSU also has Javonte Smart, Trendon Watford, and Darius days as well as plenty of other role players that are each capable of making a small but important difference.</p>
<p>Auburn will rely on Sharife Cooper like they’ve done the entire time he’s been eligible to play, but they’ll likely need at least two of JT Thor, Jaylin Williams, or Allen Flanigan to step up and be solid second and third options in scoring. Ideally, for Auburn, it’s a game where Cooper scores a lot by getting to the FT line, but otherwise gets more of his production by setting up the previously mentioned guys and others through assists.</p>
<p>Both teams are more even on paper than most would expect, but LSU has been playing better as of late, and with the game being in Baton Rouge, I think they’ll be the victorious Tigers on Saturday.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: LSU 95, Auburn 90</strong></p>
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<h4 id="mississippi-state-5-8-at-ole-miss-7-6">Mississippi State (5-8) at Ole Miss (7-6)</h4>
<p>Mississippi State is just a few games behind Ole Miss in the conference standings, but the two teams have been on opposite trajectories coming into this game. Ole Miss has won four straight games while Mississippi State has lost six of their last seven SEC games with just a win over an also struggling South Carolina team keeping them from being 0-8 in their last eight conference games.</p>
<p>The Bulldogs have three capable offensive players in Iverson Molinar, DJ Stewart Jr., and Tolu Smith, but they’ll have to all play well if Mississippi State is going to reverse their recent results against a good Ole Miss defense. For Ole Miss, they’ve been getting even better play from Devontae Shuler, Jarkel Joiner, and Romello White, and therefore will be favored to win this one, even if they’re not able to stop the Bulldogs as they’d prefer.</p>
<p>This game is a rivalry game, so you can’t just expect each team will play just like they’ve been playing recently. When looking at the entire SEC season, they’re actually still closer than expected on paper, similar to LSU and Auburn, but with more reliance on defense than offense.</p>
<p>Like the LSU and Auburn game, I’m going to stick with the hotter team and the one playing at home, but I don’t think Mississippi State will just lose without a fight, especially in a rivalry where they already lost the first matchup by 20 on their own floor.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Ole Miss 67, Mississippi State 59</strong></p>
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<h4 id="arkansas-9-4-at-texas-am-2-6">Arkansas (9-4) at Texas A&M (2-6)</h4>
<p>The weather seems to be improving in Texas, so hopefully, this game still goes on as scheduled after Alabama’s trip to Texas A&M had to be canceled due to the crazy winter storm we just had all across Texas and the surrounding states. With this being the last game of the day, there should be even more time for the slightly higher temps to thaw more of the ice and snow.</p>
<p>Getting to play this game will only be half the battle for Texas A&M since the Aggies haven’t won a game in SEC play since playing Mississippi State over a month ago. They’ll now play their first game overall in almost three weeks and get the red-hot Razorbacks to start. Arkansas is on a seven-game SEC win streak and should be a heavy favorite in this one, but sometimes those can be the games where a team finally slips up.</p>
<p>Arkansas needs to make sure they don’t look past this game with rematches against Alabama and LSU coming up next week. If the Razorbacks are able to focus on this game and don’t allow the Aggies to slow this game down and make it ugly, they should get out with their eighth straight win and move even further up in the national rankings.</p>
<p>For most of the matchups on Saturday, I have been able to make a case for how they might be closer than expected, despite every game being between a team with a shot at the NCAA Tournament and teams without a shot, but I don’t think I can make a case for Texas A&M winning this game other than no one expects them to and they shock everyone.</p>
<p>Arkansas, with the help of their last seven games, is now the third-best defense in the SEC and fifth-bet offense which gives them the second-best net rating at almost a full five points. Texas A&M on the other hand is dead last in offense scoring just 0.88 points per possession and only 12th in defense giving up over 1.06 points per possession in SEC play.</p>
<p>If the Hogs show up for this one and don’t let up too early, they should win comfortably and set themselves up for a massive rematch with Alabama.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Arkansas 80, Texas A&M 55</strong></p>
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</script></p>Jacob VarnerWhile the SEC was supposed to get their first full slate of games last week, a massive winter storm across Texas and most of the South had other plans. Games that were originally rescheduled for Thursday had to be postponed after all which adds even more games to the long list of games some SEC teams need to make up before the end of the season that is fast approaching.SEC Basketball Picks and Predictions - 2021 Week 8A2021-02-16T00:00:00-06:002021-02-16T00:00:00-06:00https://hoops.jacobvarner.com/2021/02/16/sec-basketball-picks-and-predictions-2021-week-8a<p>Right when the SEC was looking to have all teams available once again, an abnormally extreme winter across the south made things difficult for games to go on as scheduled. As it stands now, it looks like every game has found a solution and now we’re treated to a full seven-game slate stretched across three days instead of the normal two.</p>
<p>I’m glad the conference and each of the teams were able to make things work because there are a couple of really good matchups this week. Arkansas and Florida as well as LSU and Ole Miss are each trying to stay in the hunt for a double-bye in the SEC Tournament while Auburn and Vanderbilt will look to climb a little higher in the standings against struggling teams in Mississippi State and Kentucky.</p>
<p>I managed to go 4-2 on the weekend games, which brings my season record to 59-31. This week will hopefully push me over 60 correct predictions, but I think my new goal is to have twice as many correct picks as I’ve had incorrect picks before the end of the season.</p>
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<h4 id="missouri-6-5-at-georgia-5-8">Missouri (6-5) at Georgia (5-8)</h4>
<p>Both of these teams went 0-2 last week, but Missouri especially needs to snap that losing streak quickly to prevent their fall in national rankings and more importantly NCAA Tournament seeding.</p>
<p>Jeremiah Tilmon had to miss the game against Arkansas on Saturday, and he clearly would have likely made a difference as the Razorbacks got out with just a 5-point win in overtime, even in his absence. If Tilmon plays against Georgia, he’ll once again give the Tigers a big mismatch down low against an undersized Georgia team.</p>
<p>Before their recent losing streak, Georgia had three wins in a row based mostly on playing harder than their opponents. That might be a recipe for success against Missouri who has struggled to get big wins this year and tends to make every game, even wins, a little too close.</p>
<p>Even with the slight homecourt advantage, I don’t think Georgia’s backcourt is good enough to outperform Xavier Pinson and Missouri’s backcourt, but they’re almost certainly not good enough to also make up for the disadvantage they’ll have inside. I think Missouri bounces back with a good win, but in their growingly typical fashion, I think it will be closer than it probably should be.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Missouri 75, Georgia 72</strong></p>
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<h4 id="florida-6-4-at-arkansas-8-4">Florida (6-4) at Arkansas (8-4)</h4>
<p>After another pause due to COVID issues among their previously scheduled opponents, Florida is getting treated to an unfortunate return against one of the hottest teams in SEC play, on the road, when they travel to Arkansas.</p>
<p>Ignoring their last game, a disappointing loss to South Carolina, Florida was looking like one of the better teams in the SEC. But that South Carolina performance, paired with the fact that they’ll be playing after a slight delay, doesn’t give me a lot of confidence in the Gators against Arkansas, especially on the road.</p>
<p>Arkansas statistically is just right behind Florida in net rating but has the fourth-best defense in the league, which closes that gap. If both teams had been playing games last week, this would be a really hard game to predict and could be a matchup between the two teams with big claims to the title of “second-best team in the SEC.” However, I think the pause, and travel, will hurt Florida too much in this one.</p>
<p>The Razorbacks win their seventh straight SEC game and set up for a “break” against Texas A&M after three straight big SEC matchups.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Arkansas 85, Florida 78</strong></p>
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<h4 id="kentucky-5-7-at-vanderbilt-2-8">Kentucky (5-7) at Vanderbilt (2-8)</h4>
<p>Kentucky had one of their best offensive weeks of the year and finally found their outside shot last week, but still just went 1-1 with a 2-point win over Auburn thanks to a big three by Davion Mintz.</p>
<p>Vanderbilt on the other hand had a close loss to Auburn followed by a blowout of Mississippi State where they finally had a defensive performance that matched its offensive success they’ve had at times this year.</p>
<p>I’ve been tempted to pick Vanderbilt a lot this year because of how good their offense can be. Their defense has just always been the issue and pulls their overall net rating all the way down to 12th in the SEC. Fortunate for the Commodores in this one, they’re coming off their best defensive performance in SEC play and now get to play a Kentucky offense that has struggled for most of the season.</p>
<p>The Commodores will need a very good performance from Scotty Pippen Jr., but I think he can come through and continue the great performance they had against Mississippi State. Kentucky looks like they’re figuring things out on offense, but every other time I’ve thought Kentucky had turned a corner, they turn around and lose a game they shouldn’t, and I think that this can be another situation where they do that.</p>
<p>I’ve missed one game and had two games delayed the only times I picked Vanderbilt to win this season, but I hope I can turn that around with this pick.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Vanderbilt 74, Kentucky 70</strong></p>
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<h4 id="south-carolina-3-7-at-tennessee-7-5">South Carolina (3-7) at Tennessee (7-5)</h4>
<p>Every time Tennessee starts looking good again like they should be capable of playing all the time, they drop a game and/or look bad on at least one side of the ball. Most recently that came against LSU where the Volunteers could not slow down the Tigers and couldn’t keep up on offense with a Tigers team that seems to be reaching its potential once again.</p>
<p>This should be a game that Tennessee wins with ease, but that also sounds like the perfect scenario for South Carolina to have one of their good games where everything clicks and they play like one of the top teams in the conference for just a game or two. For most of SEC play, South Carolina was having major ups and downs, so with three straight losses since beating Florida on the road, this also seems like a game where they could come out and shock everyone with a win in Knoxville.</p>
<p>I’m not confident enough in South Carolina’s abilities to win to pick them here, mainly because they’ve been so inconsistent and overall don’t look like they’ll figure things out this year. I think they have the potential to keep this close, sort of like they did against Alabama, but ultimately, Tennessee will bounce back from the LSU loss with a win and try to make a run down the stretch to secure a higher seed in the SEC and NCAA Tournament.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Tennessee 64, South Carolina 61</strong></p>
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<h4 id="lsu-8-4-at-ole-miss-7-6">LSU (8-4) at Ole Miss (7-6)</h4>
<p>Along with Arkansas, and obviously Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU are coming into this week as teams that are playing well right now. While this game wasn’t originally on the schedule, they both had a free slot in the middle of the week and the teams and the SEC did the best thing in playing this game so that Ole Miss could get back to an 18-game schedule and LSU will not just need to make up one game.</p>
<p>These teams are almost exact opposites as Ole Miss is the third-best defense in the SEC and 11th on offense while LSU is second on offense and has the 11th-best defense. LSU has about a 3.5 point advantage in net efficiency, but Ole Miss also gets the advantage of staying put and hosting the Tigers for the second time this season.</p>
<p>I think LSU is a better team if both teams are playing at their best, but Ole Miss will have the advantage from a coaching standpoint. Devontae Shuler has been on a great run of games, but he’ll really need the continued help from Romello White, Jarkel Joiner, and at least one other player if Ole Miss is going to keep up with the LSU offense.</p>
<p>The Tigers have played at a pretty average pace so far this season, but Ole Miss will still want to slow the game down even more and limit the number of possessions they have to stop LSU’s big four of Cameron Thomas, Trendon Watford, Javonte Smart, and Darius Days.</p>
<p>Javonte Smart was awarded the SEC Player of the Week for last week, but Devontae Shuler might take that as extra motivation to build on his 31 points against South Carolina and make his case as one of the better guards in the SEC. There are quite a few guards in the SEC that are vying for the All-SEC First Team, but this game will feature two of them and offer a good opportunity to stand out.</p>
<p>Ole Miss lost the first matchup to LSU by 14, but they’ve improved significantly on offense since then and I think they can get the revenge and extend their winning streak to five games.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Ole Miss 80, LSU 79</strong></p>
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<h4 id="alabama-12-1-at-texas-am-2-6">Alabama (12-1) at Texas A&M (2-6)</h4>
<p>Texas A&M has missed two straight weeks of games due to COVID, and their first game back comes against an Alabama team that has been the best team in the SEC for most of the season and look to be hitting their stride once again.</p>
<p>The Aggies would barely stand a chance against Alabama under normal circumstances, but with them coming off of a pause and Alabama looking to clinch the SEC regular-season title this week, I think their chances are even closer to zero.</p>
<p>Alabama has the best defense, best offense, and therefore the best net rating in the SEC. The trip to an oddly frozen Texas might pose some issues for the Crimson Tide, but once they get there, I don’t think they’ll have any issues against the worst offense by far in the SEC and a defense that is still just 12th-best in the league.</p>
<p>I just hope no one gets hurt in this game and Alabama travels safely, because this game shouldn’t be close by halftime.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Alabama 82, Texas A&M 54</strong></p>
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<h4 id="mississippi-state-5-8-at-auburn-5-8">Mississippi State (5-8) at Auburn (5-8)</h4>
<p>These two teams have identical records both in SEC play, and overall, and are just now facing each other for the first and only time this season. While their records are the same, their stats and metrics certainly are not.</p>
<p>Auburn has found themselves on the wrong end of just about every close game this season and played their first three SEC games, all losses, without Sharife Cooper. The Tigers won four out of their first six games with Cooper eligible, but have since lost three of four with just a win over Vandy.</p>
<p>Mississippi State has it even worse over that span since they started SEC play winning four of six and then have lost six of their last seven games with a blowout against Vandy at home being their most recent result, which doesn’t bode well for this game.</p>
<p>On Saturday, I stuck with the stats when I picked Arkansas over Missouri, and the stats didn’t fail me then. This game seems to be an even bigger disparity in metrics despite the same records. Auburn currently has the fourth-best offense, tenth-best defense, but sixth overall net rating. Mississippi State looks like the mirror on offense (13th) and defense (fifth), but their offense is bad enough that it drags their net rating all the way down to -4.33 points, which is the fourth-worst in the SEC and is trending down.</p>
<p>The last time Auburn had a home game where they were the clear favorite, they ended up losing to Georgia. This could potentially be another opportunity for that, but I think Auburn’s young team would have learned their lesson and Bruce Pearl will remind them of it if they have not. This is the last winnable game on paper for Auburn as they have LSU, Florida, Tennessee, and Alabama to wrap up the season after this. With that remaining schedule, it will be a tall task for the Tigers to finish at least 0.500 in SEC play, but if they want a chance, they certainly can’t lose this one.</p>
<p>The Bulldogs will make it difficult to score inside, but I think Auburn still gets enough scoring from other areas of the court to spread out Mississippi State and get a comfortable win at home.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Auburn 76, Mississippi State 65</strong></p>
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</script></p>Jacob VarnerRight when the SEC was looking to have all teams available once again, an abnormally extreme winter across the south made things difficult for games to go on as scheduled. As it stands now, it looks like every game has found a solution and now we’re treated to a full seven-game slate stretched across three days instead of the normal two.College Basketball Top 25 Rankings: Gonzaga Moves Back on Top and SEC Teams are Crowding the Last Few Spots2021-02-15T00:00:00-06:002021-02-15T00:00:00-06:00https://hoops.jacobvarner.com/2021/02/15/jacob-varner-top-25-college-basketball-rankings<p>Michigan returned from their COVID pause to get a comeback win over Wisconsin and remain in a select group at the top of the rankings.</p>
<p>With wins over BYU and San Francisco, both on the road, I have once again moved Gonzaga back to the top spot, but they and Baylor still seem to be a few lengths away from Michigan and even further from others with Villanova’s loss.</p>
<p>Loyola Chicago got a big win over Drake in the first game but dropped the second game by 1 point in overtime, which resulted in them moving to the 10th overall spot in KenPom.</p>
<p><em>I have a new system for tracking teams and will use it to base a lot of my decisions. As the year goes on, I find that a lot of people get sucked into the most recent games and put a little too much weight on recent results sometimes. Because of this, and because I generally like objective data as much as possible, I’m going to use these metrics in my post as well as the basis for my thought process.</em></p>
<p><em>I use <a href="https://www.kenpom.com">KenPom</a> as my starting point and keep track of the top-50 overall teams and a few in others as I see fit. A key win in my rankings is defined as a top-50 win at home, a top-75 win on a neutral court, or a top-100 win on the road. I will try to record all losses for now, but will also denote bad losses in italics when necessary and those are just the opposite of the good wins. For instance, if a team loses to a team not in the top-50 at home, then it’s a “bad” loss. Same for a loss to a team outside of the top-100 anywhere.</em></p>
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<h4 id="1-gonzaga-20-0">1. Gonzaga (20-0)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Kansas on a neutral court by 12</li>
<li>Auburn on a neutral court by 23</li>
<li>West Virginia on a neutral court by 5</li>
<li>Iowa on a neutral court by 11</li>
<li>Virginia on a neutral court by 23</li>
<li>BYU at home by 17</li>
<li>Saint Mary’s on the road by 14</li>
<li>BYU on the road by 11</li>
<li>San Francisco on the road by 39</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>None</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="2-baylor-17-0">2. Baylor (17-0)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Illinois on a neutral court by 13</li>
<li>Oklahoma at home by 15</li>
<li>TCU on the road by 18</li>
<li>Texas Tech on the road by 8</li>
<li>Kansas at home by 8</li>
<li>Oklahoma State on the road by 15</li>
<li>Texas on the road by 14</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>None</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="3-michigan-14-1">3. Michigan (14-1)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Penn State at home by 4</li>
<li>Maryland on the road by 11</li>
<li>Minnesota at home by 25</li>
<li>Wisconsin at home by 23</li>
<li>Maryland at home by 24</li>
<li>Purdue on the road by 17</li>
<li>Wisconsin on the road by 8</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Minnesota on the road by 18</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="4-ohio-state-17-4">4. Ohio State (17-4)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Notre Dame on the road by 5</li>
<li>UCLA at home by 7</li>
<li>Rutgers at home by 12</li>
<li>Rutgers on the road by 11</li>
<li>Illinois on the road by 6</li>
<li>Wisconsin on the road by 12</li>
<li>Penn State at home by 4</li>
<li>Iowa on the road by 4</li>
<li>Maryland on the road by 8</li>
<li>Indiana at home by 19</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Purdue on the road by 7</li>
<li>Northwestern on the road by 1</li>
<li>Minnesota on the road by 17</li>
<li>Purdue at home by 2</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="5-illinois-14-5">5. Illinois (14-5)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Duke on the road by 15</li>
<li>Minnesota at home by 27</li>
<li>Penn State on the road by 17</li>
<li>Indiana at home by 9</li>
<li>Purdue at home by 11</li>
<li>Northwestern on the road by 25</li>
<li>Penn State at home by 14</li>
<li>Iowa at home by 5</li>
<li>Indiana on the road by 4 in OT</li>
<li>Wisconsin at home by 15</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Baylor on a neutral court by 13</li>
<li>Missouri on the road by 3</li>
<li>Rutgers on the road by 3</li>
<li>Maryland at home by 3</li>
<li>Ohio State at home by 6</li>
</ul>
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<h4 id="6-alabama-17-5">6. Alabama (17-5)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Providence on a neutral court by 17</li>
<li>Tennessee on the road by 8</li>
<li>Florida at home by 15</li>
<li>Auburn on the road by 4</li>
<li>Kentucky on the road by 20</li>
<li>Arkansas at home by 31</li>
<li>LSU on the road by 30</li>
<li>LSU at home by 18</li>
<li>South Carolina on the road by 3</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Stanford on a neutral court by 18</li>
<li>Clemson on a neutral court by 8</li>
<li>Western Kentucky at home by 2</li>
<li>Oklahoma on the road by 5</li>
<li>Missouri on the road by 3</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="7-iowa-15-6">7. Iowa (15-6)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>North Carolina at home by 13</li>
<li>Purdue at home by 15</li>
<li>Rutgers on the road by 2</li>
<li>Maryland on the road by 22</li>
<li>Minnesota at home by 15</li>
<li>Northwestern on the road by 23</li>
<li>Rutgers at home by 13</li>
<li>Michigan State on the road by 30</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Gonzaga on a neutral court by 11</li>
<li>Minnesota on the road by 7 in OT</li>
<li>Indiana at home by 12</li>
<li>Illinois on the road by 5</li>
<li>Ohio State at home by 4</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="8-virginia-15-3">8. Virginia (15-3)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Notre Dame on the road by 9</li>
<li>Boston College on the road by 12</li>
<li>Clemson on the road by 35</li>
<li>Syracuse at home by 23</li>
<li>NC State on the road by 7</li>
<li>Georgia Tech on the road by 8</li>
<li>North Carolina at home by 12</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>San Francisco on a neutral court by 1</li>
<li>Gonzaga on a neutral court by 23</li>
<li>Virginia Tech on the road by 14</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="9-houston-17-2">9. Houston (17-2)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Texas Tech on a neutral court by 11</li>
<li>UCF on the road by 9</li>
<li>SMU on the road by 14</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Tulsa on the road by 1</li>
<li>East Carolina on the road by 9</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="10-texas-13-5">10. Texas (13-5)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Davidson on a neutral court by 2</li>
<li>Indiana on a neutral court by 22</li>
<li>North Carolina on a neutral court by 2</li>
<li>Oklahoma State at home by 3</li>
<li>Kansas on the road by 25</li>
<li>West Virginia on the road by 2</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Villanova at home by 4</li>
<li>Texas Tech at home by 2</li>
<li>Oklahoma at home by 1</li>
<li>Baylor at home by 14</li>
<li>Oklahoma State on the road by 8 in 2OT</li>
</ul>
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<h4 id="11-oklahoma-13-5">11. Oklahoma (13-5)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>TCU on the road by 4</li>
<li>West Virginia at home by 4</li>
<li>Kansas at home by 7</li>
<li>Texas on the road by 1</li>
<li>Alabama at home by 5</li>
<li>West Virginia on the road by 1 in 2OT</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Xavier on the road by 22</li>
<li>Texas Tech at home by 2</li>
<li>Baylor on the road by 15</li>
<li>Kansas on the road by 4</li>
<li>Texas Tech on the road by 5</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="12-west-virginia-14-6">12. West Virginia (14-6)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>VCU on a neutral court by 12</li>
<li>Oklahoma State on the road by 3</li>
<li>Texas Tech at home by 1</li>
<li>Kansas at home by 12</li>
<li>Texas Tech on the road by 11</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Gonzaga on a neutral court by 5</li>
<li>Kansas on the road by 14</li>
<li>Oklahoma on the road by 4</li>
<li>Texas at home by 2</li>
<li>Florida at home by 5</li>
<li>Oklahoma at home by 1 in 2OT</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="13-villanova-13-3">13. Villanova (13-3)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Arizona State on a neutral court by 9</li>
<li>Texas on the road by 4</li>
<li>Georgetown on the road by 13</li>
<li>Marquette on the road by 17</li>
<li>Seton Hall at home by 2</li>
<li>Seton Hall on the road by 8</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Virginia Tech on a neutral court by 8 in OT</li>
<li>St. John’s on the road by 11</li>
<li>Creighton on the road by 16</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="14-usc-17-3">14. USC (17-3)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>BYU on a neutral court by 26</li>
<li>Arizona on the road by 14</li>
<li>Arizona State on the road by 9</li>
<li>Stanford on the road by 6</li>
<li>UCLA at home by 18</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Connecticut on a neutral court by 3</li>
<li>Colorado at home by 10</li>
<li>Oregon State on the road by 2</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="15-texas-tech-14-6">15. Texas Tech (14-6)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Oklahoma on the road by 2</li>
<li>Iowa State on the road by 27</li>
<li>Texas on the road by 2</li>
<li>LSU on the road by 5</li>
<li>Oklahoma at home by 5</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Houston on a neutral court by 11</li>
<li>Kansas at home by 1</li>
<li>Oklahoma State at home by 5 in OT</li>
<li>Baylor at home by 8</li>
<li>West Virginia on the road by 1</li>
<li>West Virginia at home by 11</li>
</ul>
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<h4 id="16-creighton-16-5">16. Creighton (16-5)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>St. Johns on the road by 18</li>
<li>Connecticut on the road by 2 in OT</li>
<li>Xavier at home by 5</li>
<li>Providence on the road by 2</li>
<li>Seton Hall at home by 36</li>
<li>Connecticut at home by 8</li>
<li>Seton Hall on the road by 4</li>
<li>Marquette on the road by 3</li>
<li>Georgetown on the road by 15</li>
<li>Villanova at home by 16</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Kansas on the road by 1</li>
<li>Marquette at home by 5</li>
<li>Butler on the road by 4 in OT</li>
<li>Providence at home by 4</li>
<li>Georgetown at home by 7</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="17-wisconsin-15-7">17. Wisconsin (15-7)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Loyola Chicago at home by 14</li>
<li>Louisville at home by 37</li>
<li>Michigan State on the road by 9</li>
<li>Minnesota at home by 12</li>
<li>Indiana at home by 7 in 2OT</li>
<li>Rutgers on the road by 6</li>
<li>Maryland on the road by 6</li>
<li>Penn State at home by 16</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Marquette on the road by 2</li>
<li>Maryland at home by 6</li>
<li>Michigan on the road by 23</li>
<li>Ohio State at home by 12</li>
<li>Penn State on the road by 10</li>
<li>Illinois on the road by 15</li>
<li>Michigan at home by 8</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="18-loyola-chicago-18-4">18. Loyola Chicago (18-4)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Missouri State on the road by 26</li>
<li>Missouri State on the road by 20</li>
<li>Drake on the road by 27</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Wisconsin on the road by 14</li>
<li>Richmond on a neutral court by 2</li>
<li>Indiana State on the road by 5</li>
<li>Drake on the road by 1 in OT</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="19-florida-state-11-3">19. Florida State (11-3)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Indiana at home by 2 OT</li>
<li>Florida at home by 12</li>
<li>North Carolina at home by 7</li>
<li>Louisville on the road by 13</li>
<li>Clemson at home by 19</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>UCF at home by 12</li>
<li>Clemson on the road by 10</li>
<li>Georgia Tech on the road by 11</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="20-tennessee-14-5">20. Tennessee (14-5)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Colorado at home by 9</li>
<li>Missouri on the road by 20</li>
<li>Arkansas at home by 5</li>
<li>Kansas at home by 19</li>
<li>Kentucky on the road by 11</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Alabama at home by 8</li>
<li>Florida on the road by 26</li>
<li>Missouri at home by 9</li>
<li>Ole Miss on the road by 2</li>
<li>LSU on the road by 13</li>
</ul>
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<h4 id="21-purdue-13-8">21. Purdue (13-8)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Ohio State at home by 7</li>
<li>Maryland at home by 3</li>
<li>Michigan State on the road by 1</li>
<li>Indiana on the road by 12</li>
<li>Penn State at home by 8</li>
<li>Ohio State on the road by 2</li>
<li>Minnesota at home by 19</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Clemson on a neutral court by 11</li>
<li>Miami on the road by 4</li>
<li>Iowa on the road by 15</li>
<li>Rutgers on the road by 5</li>
<li>Illinois on the road by 8</li>
<li>Michigan at home by 17</li>
<li>Maryland on the road by 1</li>
<li>Minnesota on the road by 3</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="22-kansas-15-7">22. Kansas (15-7)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Kentucky on a neutral court by 3</li>
<li>Creighton at home by 1</li>
<li>Texas Tech on the road by 1</li>
<li>West Virginia at home by 14</li>
<li>Oklahoma at home by 4</li>
<li>Oklahoma State at home by 12</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Gonzaga on a neutral court by 12</li>
<li>Texas at home by 25</li>
<li>Oklahoma State on the road by 5</li>
<li>Baylor on the road by 8</li>
<li>Oklahoma on the road by 7</li>
<li>Tennessee on the road by 19</li>
<li>West Virginia on the road by 12</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="23-arkansas-16-5">23. Arkansas (16-5)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Auburn on the road by 12</li>
<li>Kentucky on the road by 1</li>
<li>Missouri on the road by 5 at home by in OT</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Missouri at home by 13</li>
<li>Tennessee on the road by 5</li>
<li>LSU on the road by 18</li>
<li>Alabama on the road by 31</li>
<li>Oklahoma State on the road by 4</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="24-missouri-13-5">24. Missouri (13-5)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Oregon on a neutral court by 8</li>
<li>Wichita State on the road by 10</li>
<li>Illinois at home by 3</li>
<li>Arkansas on the road by 13</li>
<li>Tennessee on the road by 9</li>
<li>Alabama at home by 3</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Tennessee at home by 20</li>
<li>Mississippi State on the road by 15</li>
<li>Auburn on the road by 6</li>
<li>Ole Miss on the road by 21</li>
<li>Arkansas at home by 5 in OT</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="25-rutgers-12-7">25. Rutgers (12-7)</h4>
<p><strong>Key Wins:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Syracuse at home by 10</li>
<li>Maryland on the road by 14</li>
<li>Illinois at home by 3</li>
<li>Purdue at home by 5</li>
<li>Indiana on the road by 4</li>
<li>Northwestern on the road by 8</li>
<li>Minnesota at home by 4</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Losses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Ohio State on the road by 12</li>
<li>Iowa at home by 2</li>
<li>Michigan State on the road by 23</li>
<li>Ohio State at home by 11</li>
<li>Wisconsin at home by 6</li>
<li>Penn State on the road by 8</li>
<li>Iowa on the road by 13</li>
</ul>
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<h4 id="also-considered-alphabetical">Also Considered (Alphabetical):</h4>
<p>Arizona, BYU, Clemson, Colorado, Connecticut, Duke, Florida, Indiana, Louisville, LSU, Maryland, Memphis, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Penn State, Saint Louis, San Diego State, Seton Hall, St. Bonaventure, UCLA, Utah State, VCU, Virginia Tech</p>Jacob VarnerMichigan returned from their COVID pause to get a comeback win over Wisconsin and remain in a select group at the top of the rankings.